NC State satellite mapping shows North Carolina lost 21% of its coastal forest, about 64,220 hectares, between 1985 and 2021, mostly to rising seas. Measured per year, conversion to marsh, ghost forest and shrub after 2010 ran at about triple the earlier pace.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence62
Geoscience Australia's public Sentinel-2 tool maps vegetation moisture at 20-metre resolution about every five days. In the ACT, rated normal risk by the national outlook, it showed a dry south and faster drying than in most recent years.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
UBC researchers testing two heat-planning tools in Kelowna found that 20% of the city's analyzed area holds 50.8% of its potential new tree shade. Paired with heat maps sharpened to 10-meter pixels, the rankings reach single blocks, though they rest on surface heat.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Sentinel-2 images show Sertung Island's vegetation index falling from 0.72 to about zero in the month spanning the September 2026 Anak Krakatau eruption. The researchers say ash over living plants gives the same signal, so survivors must be counted on the ground.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Peat gives off roughly three times the fine particulate matter of other tropical forest fires, so most of this season's health cost is decided by how much soil is already dry and when the rains return.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives42
- Confidence63
IIASA traces this year's Danube low water from an April-July rainfall deficit through soils that began drying in March, four months before the river made it unmistakable.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence52
Satellite imagery from 15 July put the Dikwena impoundment in an apparently inactive state 29 days before the 13 August breach. Dormant structures are the part of the portfolio nobody staffs.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives32
- Confidence42