NASA's Landsat images show farmland and aquaculture along Prachin Buri's Bang Pakong River flooded on 2 October 2026, set against the same season in 2025. The pair is strong evidence of how far the water spread that day and weaker evidence of what caused it.
Reality
- Evidence65
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
UBC researchers testing two heat-planning tools in Kelowna found that 20% of the city's analyzed area holds 50.8% of its potential new tree shade. Paired with heat maps sharpened to 10-meter pixels, the rankings reach single blocks, though they rest on surface heat.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
The IMBIE team merged 42 independent satellite surveys from 27 missions to account for 11.3 trillion tonnes of ice lost from Greenland and Antarctica since 1979, and it assigns 84% of that loss to glaciers accelerating into the ocean.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 48%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 8%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives30
- Confidence72
Dartmouth and Appalachian Mountain Club researchers found significant vegetation gains in 69% of alpine zones between the Adirondacks and the Gaspe. The growth runs fastest on wind-sheltered slopes, where ground surveys will have to settle whether rare flowering plants are losing out.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Calibrating penguin guano color against guano chemistry gave one team a krill-share model they could run backwards through an archive that starts in the 1980s. It is cheap, it covers a whole continent, and it is correlational about krill, the number everyone wants pinned down.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence44
Peat gives off roughly three times the fine particulate matter of other tropical forest fires, so most of this season's health cost is decided by how much soil is already dry and when the rains return.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives42
- Confidence63
The archive that pushed Smyley Island's founding back to at least 1989 also shows the colony re-forming beside grounded icebergs after a probable total failure in 2022. That re-forming pattern is awkward for projections that hold breeding sites still.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives34
- Confidence52
A Landsat-based method estimates tides every 100 metres of Pacific coastline. Inside a single 90 km New Zealand bay it finds gradients that gauge-fed models cannot see.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence46