Invest2 publishers3 min readPublished
Kalshi's $40 billion round prices the prediction market at 20 times its revenue run-rate
Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, 3.6 times the $11 billion it was worth in December 2025. Most of the volume behind that price comes from sports contracts, so the new investors are betting that regulators and courts keep allowing them.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Kalshi's Series F in May 2026 raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, double its December figure.
- Existing investor Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in talks to lead the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer possible participants, Reuters reported.
- Chief executive Tarek Mansour has said a listing is under consideration but in June ruled out going public this year.
- This is expected to be the last private financing before an IPO that could come as early as 2027.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- cost New money pays about 20 times a $2 billion run-rate, so later buyers come out ahead only if volume keeps compounding near its recent six-month pace.
- decision Taking $1 billion for about 2.5% of the company, against roughly 4.5% in May, lets Kalshi fund itself privately while a listing waits until 2027 at the earliest.
- precedent The $40 billion mark becomes the figure a 2027 IPO is judged against, and a listing below it would mark down Sequoia, Wellington and the other late entrants.
Kalshi is asking for the same $1 billion it raised in May, at close to twice the price. The Series F valued it at $22 billion four months ago. The new round puts it at about $40 billion, a 1.8-fold step [4][15][1][7]. If both figures are post-money (neither report says), the May money bought about 4.5% of the company and this round buys about 2.5% [2].
The price has followed volume. Trading grew from $52 billion to $178 billion over six months, a 3.4-fold rise [6][5]. The valuation has moved at a similar pace: going from $11 billion in December 2025 to $40 billion is a 3.6-fold rise in under a year [3][1]. Against a $2 billion revenue run-rate, buyers are paying about 20 times sales [7][3]. On the reported gross margin, the multiple of gross profit is about 22 [4].
Most of that volume is sports. Contracts on game outcomes make up around 65 to 70% of Kalshi's trading volume, according to Crypto Briefing [8]. Applied to the $178 billion figure, that comes to roughly $116 billion to $125 billion [6]. Kalshi's status as a contract market overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is central to its pitch, because it lets the company present itself as a financial exchange [9]. Cointelegraph's report links to its own coverage headlined "Kalshi loses appeal, setting up potential Supreme Court case" [12].
The price can go wrong in more than one way. A court or the regulator could narrow sports event contracts and cut into the two-thirds of volume behind the valuation. Volume could level off, and 20 times revenue would then be the multiple paid at the top. The round itself could also slip or reprice. Reuters' sources describe the talks as advanced [2], and the Financial Times reported on June 24 that the raise could close as soon as the third quarter [11].
I think the $40 billion is mostly a price on the sports business surviving its legal fights, paid at a growth-stock multiple. Crypto Briefing made a related point about disclosure, writing that any S-1 ahead of an IPO would need to address the sports dependence in detail [10]. The counter-case is the margin. A business keeping about nine-tenths of its revenue as gross profit can absorb a slower year of volume [7].
Wellington Management is the institutional name in the round. Crypto Briefing described it as a large asset manager whose participation suggests interest in Kalshi as a potential public company [14]. Reuters' sources named it alongside existing investor Sequoia as a possible lead [2]. The evidence covers one manager pricing one company's private shares, and it does not yet show prediction markets being bought as an asset class. The bullish case is wrong if a court rules against sports event contracts, or if the next volume figure Kalshi discloses comes in below $178 billion.
What to watch
- Whether the round closes near $40 billion in the third quarter, as the Financial Times reported it could, and whether Tiger Global and Dragoneer take part.
- The appeal Kalshi lost and any Supreme Court review of sports event contracts, the category behind about two-thirds of its volume.
- An S-1 filing, and what it shows about sports' share of volume and whether trading has kept growing past $178 billion.