US EV sales in the latest quarter sit about 174,000 units below the Q3 2025 rush

German buyers lost their EV incentive in November 2023, a year earlier than expected, and the next month sales fell by more than half ^[15]. By this August, German sales were the second highest on record ^[16]. TechCrunch says the US recovery mimics that path ^[17].

TNW, citing Cox figures reported by InsideEVs, puts the US third quarter at almost 263,000 against more than 437,000 a year earlier ^[1]. The gap is about 174,000 units ^[18], or roughly 40% ^[19].

Here's what US buyers actually did in 2025: the federal credit was being scrapped, so they bought early, and the quarter set a record that TNW says will not be matched soon ^[2]. Here's what a team tells itself if it indexes to that quarter: that 437,000 was the market and 263,000 is the shortfall ^[1].

Europe's July came in 14,006 units above the US quarter, about 5% more ^[20]. The comparison is rough. Dataforce's figure covers the EU, the UK and the EFTA states ^[8], and it sets one month against three. On pace, the US ran at about 87,700 a month and Europe's July was roughly 3.2 times that ^[21].

One number needs checking before it goes in a deck. TNW reports a 6.1% rise on the previous quarter ^[22]. TechCrunch, citing a new Cox report, says EVs captured 6.1% of the US market, their best showing since the third quarter of 2025 ^[23]. Neither piece explains the difference.

TNW's explanation for the European gap is that a fleet-average rule obliges manufacturers to sell cheap electric cars, while a consumer rebate only promotes them until it ends ^[24]. Sixteen models priced under EUR 25,000 are due on sale in the EU by the end of the year ^[10].

Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox's director of industry insights, said the EV market is "finding its footing again" ^[3]. We would still baseline the US plan at the third-quarter count and treat growth as upside. The tradeoff is supply: if her read is right, a flat 263,000 will run short.

The test we would apply to each line of a US plan is one question: what made the buyer sign? If the answer is the car, as with the refreshed Toyota and Lexus models ^[5], plan on it. If the answer sits outside the car, such as a rebate or the pump price, write down the date or the price at which it stops and plan the volume for that point.