Wright sends crude traders to 10 million barrels a day of workaround routes

Add the two figures Wright gave the market and the total is about 19 million barrels a day: over 9 through the strait under US naval escort, roughly 10 on alternative routes ^[8][3][13]. Hormuz alone moved 17 to 20 million before the strikes ^[4]. Wright did not say how much of that 10 million was already moving on those routes before US and Israeli forces struck Iran earlier in 2026 ^[18][6].

Take the throughput on its own. Over 9 million against a normal 17 to 20 is 45 to 53 percent of the pre-strike range ^[14]. Since the strikes the strait has averaged between 7 and 11 million a day even with US naval protection in place ^[7], so Wright is describing the upper half of that band ^[17].

The same figures imply a world petroleum market of 85 to 100 million barrels a day, since Hormuz at 17 to 20 is put at roughly a fifth of consumption ^[4][15]. The 8 to 11 million a day now missing from the strait is 8 to 13 percent of that ^[16]. Most of those barrels still arrive, by pipeline or around the Arabian Peninsula, later and at a higher freight cost ^[8][10].

That leaves the escort. Cryptobriefing's account says that if naval support were reduced, insurance rates for tankers transiting the strait would spike, raising the cost of every barrel that moves through the corridor ^[11]. Iran is reportedly due in Oman around September 14 and 15 to discuss temporary shipping arrangements with Gulf nations, partly to reduce the need for military escorts ^[9]. Washington is telling traders to discount that meeting ^[1][2], and the publisher concluded from the advice to lean on existing workarounds that the US expects no meaningful near-term result ^[19].

The Oman round produces a temporary passage framework, and the breakthrough Wright told traders to ignore prices in within days ^[9][1]. Or escalation pushes throughput toward the 7 million floor of the observed band, and the workaround, capped by pipeline capacity, has no room to absorb the difference ^[7][10][12]. Or the escort thins for reasons that have nothing to do with Iran, and insurance repricing lifts the delivered cost of every transiting barrel with no change in physical volume ^[11].

On this evidence I would price escort duration ahead of deal odds. The roughly 10 million on alternative routes is bounded by pipe capacity and voyage length ^[10][3], while the 9 million through the strait is a function of who is sailing alongside it ^[8]. The counter is straightforward, and it is why I would not size that view heavily: a temporary arrangement between Iran and its Gulf neighbours is cheap for both sides to sign, needs no American signature, and is on the table this week ^[9].