other
State claiming the strait is completely shut down while attacking detected vessels; its own oil exports are blocked by the U.S. naval blockade.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Abu Dhabi suspended trade and financial transactions with Tehran until further notice. That shuts a channel supplying more than 30% of Iranian imports, most of it third countries' goods.
Reality
The 10-year sits at 4.696% and the 30-year at 5.284%, both through the markers the Treasury Secretary was defending. The long end is pricing credibility, not the next rate decision.
Reality
Flows through the strait have swung between 3.7 million and 6.4 million barrels a day since mid-July, against about 9 million before. The hedge is against variance, not closure.
Reality
Iran wants a per-barrel fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the three main scenarios on offer all end with someone paying. Freight models built on mean reversion are the exposure.
Reality
The 60-day cease-fire window closed on the 16th. Washington is weighing secondary sanctions on Chinese buyers of Iranian crude while US pump prices run 29% above last year, three months from the midterms.
Reality
Trump wants Iran tariffs folded into a Russia sanctions bill that already cleared the Senate 86-12. With Hormuz contested, $80 oil is the calm case, not the base case.
Reality
The FT judged Beijing's energy strategy vindicated by the Iran conflict, per a secondary summary. The evidence on offer is one import number and a falling Brent price.
Reality
Erdogan wants the strait reopened and has signed a 750,000 b/d pipeline deal in case it isn't. Tehran's condition is war damages, which is a budget question, not a military one.
Reality
Tehran calls the strait shut. The Trump administration puts clandestine flows at 8-9 million barrels a day and analysts at 7, which is why oil is choppy rather than vertical.
Reality
A 3.3% annualized Q1 contraction has reversed, and the IMF, OECD and Bank of Israel now see full-year 2026 growth between 3.3% and 3.8%. That range is the number to hold vendors against.
Reality
Anti-ship missiles fired toward the Gulf of Oman sit a few minutes' flight from a two-mile-wide outbound lane carrying about 21 million barrels a day. The escalation cycle now has a firing record.
Reality
Four dated IRGC episodes since April, a collapsed US-Iran safe-passage memorandum, and fresh fire toward the strait argue for a standing premium rather than a series of one-off scares.
Reality
A draft Iranian law would charge 7% of cargo value to transit the strait and fine refusers 20%. That makes it an insurance and charter-contract problem before it is a military one.
Reality
Drone strikes on two ADNOC tankers on August 14 nearly stopped traffic through the strait. A US sanctions package due the week of August 17 will not reopen it.
Reality
Oversupply, bypass pipelines and full storage absorbed what the IEA called the largest oil supply disruption on record. Those cushions are thinner now, and a second phase lands on a drawn-down system.
Reality