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Israel is a Middle Eastern country and longtime U.S. ally, often at the center of regional conflicts involving Iran and its proxies.
The US Energy Secretary told oil markets on September 13 not to bank on an Iran breakthrough and to lean on alternative transit already moving about 10 million barrels a day, with Hormuz itself running above 9 million against 17 to 20 before the strikes.
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US and Middle Eastern officials told the Wall Street Journal that Iran is putting ballistic missiles together from components held underground, at output below prewar levels. The Trump administration says Iran's capabilities are sharply weakened.
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Iranian loadings averaged 220,000 to 260,000 barrels a day in August, and the subtraction from world supply comes to about 1.6m bpd. The report carrying those figures leaves out the crude price and the name of the tracking provider.
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A Foreign Affairs analysis argues Washington and Tehran each prefer the stalemate to the price of ending it, which puts Gulf shipping and energy risk on a multi-year footing and could leave a permanent toll behind.
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Foreign Affairs dates the US and Israeli war on Iran to February 28. What has followed reads less like a single shock than a duty cycle at airports, refineries, desalination plants and ports.
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Tehran says any country backing Monday's sanctions is committing an act of war. Its price for reopening the strait is three things only the US can do, which makes duration the exposure to size.
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Tehran told Gulf states on August 22 that helping enforce US sanctions counts as an act of war. With its own exports down roughly 77 to 80 percent, the self-deterrence argument is thinner.
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Pezeshkian says none of the clauses is a surrender and that only Washington is bound. The terms a shipowner cares about are therefore written in Tehran, and revisable there.
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Erdogan wants the strait reopened and has signed a 750,000 b/d pipeline deal in case it isn't. Tehran's condition is war damages, which is a budget question, not a military one.
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A 3.3% annualized Q1 contraction has reversed, and the IMF, OECD and Bank of Israel now see full-year 2026 growth between 3.3% and 3.8%. That range is the number to hold vendors against.
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Oversupply, bypass pipelines and full storage absorbed what the IEA called the largest oil supply disruption on record. Those cushions are thinner now, and a second phase lands on a drawn-down system.
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