Rising UK hiring leaves employers with a deepening pool of candidates

September's placements reading is 0.9 points above the 50 line that separates growth from contraction ^[18]. The figure comes from questionnaires answered by around 400 recruitment and employment consultancies, compiled by S&P Global ^[6]. Maxine Bligh, interim chief executive of the REC, compared the run with the last one. "The permanent jobs market is revving its engine, with a second successive month of growth. The last time we saw a sustained run of growth in permanent placements was between March 2021 and September 2022," she said ^[10].

The same survey points away from a candidate shortage. The staff availability index fell 3.4 points in September, to 57.2 ^[14]. Any reading above 50 still means more people available than the month before, so the pool grew again, just more slowly ^[5][1]. Jon Holt, group chief executive and UK senior partner at KPMG, said: "But this remains a fragile recovery, and in some sectors it could be seen as an employer's market as the number of people looking for roles increases" ^[11].

A recruiter pressing for early commitment would say the 3.4-point drop is the first sign of the pool thinning, and that a manager who waits will compete for fewer people. That drop measures slower growth in supply, and the number of available candidates is still going up ^[1]. I would expect real tightening to show up in pay first. Both the permanent and temporary pay indices fell in September ^[15]. Demand is also still below the line. The permanent vacancy index rose 1.6 points to 48.4, which still signals fewer permanent vacancies overall, so the private-sector rise has not yet pulled total permanent demand into growth ^[7][8].

Holt linked the fragility to tax policy. "Businesses will be looking to the Budget later this month for greater certainty in tax policy and a sense that the government is willing to create the right conditions to turn this emerging confidence into investment and ultimately jobs," he said ^[12]. The Chancellor has limited room to provide it. Economists cited by City AM forecast that his fiscal headroom, £23.6bn in March, could have halved because of the Iran war ^[19]. Halving would leave about £11.8bn, and closing the gap would take spending cuts or tax rises to meet the fiscal rules ^[20][19]. City AM also reported fears that the private sector could face another tax raid, set against spending commitments from Prime Minister Andy Burnham on nationalisation, bus fares and VAT on energy bills ^[17].

Staging headcount has one weak point. If private-sector permanent vacancies keep rising while growth in candidate availability keeps slowing, roles held back until after the Budget would be filled in a tighter market than September's ^[7][1]. A single month of private-sector vacancy growth, the first in more than two years, does not establish that trend ^[7]. Bligh made its continuation conditional. "A Budget that gets business confidence moving again is key to keeping that momentum going," she said ^[13].