Tory shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith will pledge to scrap the Environment Agency and Natural England and replace two developer obligations with one levy. With the party polling third, the pledges bind no one yet but name the rules a Conservative government would remove.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Capital Economics says Britain's housebuilding miss could cut £1.6bn from John Healey's fiscal headroom by erasing the OBR's planning-reform boost. Builders blame mortgage rates, and a loan scheme for buyers helps his Budget only if the OBR scores it as adding homes.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
The Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all decide inside 72 hours, with Brent crude at $108 a barrel and ten-year Treasury yields nearing 5 percent, a level the report dates to 2007. Gilts are higher still.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives65
- Confidence27
The Office for National Statistics put July growth at 0.4% against forecasts of none, and money markets now price Bank rate at 4.75% by July 2027. Oil and the European Central Bank did most of that work.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence68
JPMorgan's chief executive says a planned £3 billion Canary Wharf headquarters may not proceed if bank taxes rise, a warning timed to Andy Burnham's first day in office.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives78
- Confidence52