Supply growth explains only part of XRP's 62.5% fall from its 2018 high
XRP trades near $1.33, 62.5% below its January 2018 peak of $3.55, while bitcoin and ether stay far above their 2017 highs. Supply growth of 63% explains a drop to about $2.18, so demand-side factors have to account for the remaining fall.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: XRP's peak price adjusted for the rise in circulating supply, holding market value constant, is about $2.18. XRP trades at $1.33. Its early January 2018 peak was $3.55.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak price adjusted for supply growth, about | $2.18 | 9 | |
| XRP price now | $1.33 | 10 | |
| Early Jan 2018 peak | $3.55 | 3 |
What happened
- XRP funds have drawn $1.80 billion since debuting nearly a year ago, according to SoSoValue, while bitcoin funds often take in more than $1 billion in a single day.
- Nansen data show spot trading in XRP has fallen 53.5%, trading in its perpetual futures has dropped 44% and the number of active addresses is 10.7% lower.
- The SEC case ended in August 2025 when both sides dropped appeals, after a 2023 ruling that institutional sales were securities offerings and a $125 million penalty ordered in 2024.
- Ripple has concentrated on cross-border payments and not on DeFi, AI or memecoins, the sectors that drew greater capital flows.
Why it matters
- What it costs cost A holder who bought at the January 2018 peak needs a gain of about 167% from $1.33 to break even.
- What doesn't add up contradiction The SEC explanation has a timing problem: XRP set a $3.66 high in July 2025, before the case ended in August, and now trades about 63.7% below it.
- Who has to decide decision Ripple's choice to build RLUSD and trade financing products costs XRP attention, according to Wincent's Paul Howard, and holders see a return only if that work lifts use of the ledger and coin.
Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, supplies the first leg of the fall in a figure coindesk.com quoted. "About 63% more XRP is in circulation than at that peak, so the same circulating market capitalization would mean a price roughly 39% lower," he said [2]. Applied to the $3.55 peak, that is a price of about $2.18 [9], against $1.33 today [3].
The second leg is a fall in market value. At $1.33 on 63.1 billion tokens XRP is worth about $83.9 billion; at $3.55 on 38.7 billion (treating the 2017 count as the count at the January 2018 peak) it was worth about $137.4 billion, a drop of about 39% [10]. Nansen's Nicolai Sondergaard, a senior research analyst, gave a different figure for the same supply rise, telling coindesk.com that XRP's total market value "fell only about 3%" [1]. The article does not give the dates that comparison covers.
We think the 39% fall in market value is the part that needs explaining, and fund inflows, trading volume and active addresses are the candidates. Three things could change that. The split between the two legs rests on 38.7 billion tokens being the count at the peak, and a different count moves the line between supply and demand. The volume declines may simply record a slide that followed the price. And the XRP funds debuted nearly a year ago [5], so their record is short.
Rising fund inflows and trading volume with the price still near $1.33 would show that demand is not what holds the token down.
What to watch
- Cumulative XRP fund inflows against the $1.80 billion total, and whether any single day approaches the $1 billion days bitcoin funds see.
- Nansen's active-address count against the 10.7% fall, as Ripple's RLUSD and trade financing products scale.
- A dated Nansen series for circulating supply and market value, which would show whether the 38.7 billion count holds at the January 2018 peak.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption30
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
"Circulating supply grew 63%, from 38.7B in 2017 to 63.1B, while XRP's total market value fell only about 3%," said Nicolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen.
- [2]
"About 63% more XRP is in circulation than at that peak, so the same circulating market capitalization would mean a price roughly 39% lower," said Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group.
- [3]
XRP trades around $1.33, down 62.5% from its early January 2018 peak of $3.55.
- [4]
Bitcoin, ether and many other tokens have pulled back sharply from their 2025 peaks, yet remain far above their 2017 highs.
- [5]
XRP funds have pulled in just $1.80 billion of investor money since debuting nearly a year ago, according to SoSoValue; bitcoin ETFs often attract over $1 billion in a single day.
- [6]
Nansen data show XRP spot volume down 53.5%, perpetual futures volume down 44%, and active addresses down 10.7%.
- [7]
A federal judge ruled in 2023 that XRP sales on public exchanges were not securities offerings but sales to institutional investors were; Ripple was ordered to pay a $125 million penalty in 2024; the SEC case ended in August 2025 when both sides dropped their appeals.
- [8]
XRP briefly topped its old high, reaching $3.66 in July 2025 before crashing.
- [9]
Holding market value constant, the peak price of $3.55 adjusted for the rise in circulating supply from 38.7 billion to 63.1 billion tokens is about $2.18.
- [10]
At $1.33 on 63.1 billion tokens XRP's market value is about $83.9 billion, against about $137.4 billion at $3.55 on 38.7 billion tokens, a fall of about 39%.
- [11]
A buyer at the $3.55 peak needs a gain of about 167% from $1.33 to break even.
- [12]
At $1.33, XRP trades about 63.7% below its July 2025 high of $3.66.
- [13]
Ripple has focused on cross-border payments rather than chasing sectors such as DeFi, AI and memecoins, which have attracted greater capital flows and deeper integration with traditional finance.
- [14]
"Ripple, meanwhile, has been working hard to build payment infrastructure, RLUSD and trade financing products around the usage of the ledger and coin, and this has taken focus from just core XRP," said Paul Howard, senior director at market-making firm Wincent.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- coindesk.comXRP has failed to make holders rich like bitcoin and ether. Here’s why
1 article · October 15, 2026
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