InvestNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
STRC's trading depth depends on a $100 price that Strategy's buybacks helped support
Strategy's own buybacks made up over 20% of weekly STRC trading in most of September, Keyrock found. For holders the larger exposure is the price, since Keyrock found STRC four to eight times less liquid once it drifts more than 1% from its $100 par.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- By Oct. 4 Strategy had spent about $1.45 billion of its $2 billion preferred-share buyback authorization, leaving $547.2 million.
- Strategy's share of STRC volume peaked near 28% in the week of Sept. 8 and slipped to just under 20% in early October.
- With support from the buyback program, STRC has climbed from the mid-$70s in June to about $99.50, close to its $100 reference price.
- Keyrock found STRC can absorb about $28 million of trading before its price moves 0.1%, against under $3 million for Strive's SATA.
Why it matters
- exposure A holder selling $50 million on one of STRC's worst 10% of days would be offering about 7.7 times the depth within a 0.1% move, so a large exit below par means taking a discount.
- decision Strategy has to weigh spending the rest of its authorization on STRC against its aim of showing that preferreds can fund bitcoin buying without the issuer stepping in.
- constraint Strategy's fixed-rate preferreds would need six to eight weeks to clear a $50 million position, leaving STRC as the only Strategy preferred an institution can leave at that size within days.
Keyrock's illustrative seller works a $50 million STRC position at 20% of daily volume and is out in under two trading days [9]. On turnover of about $150 million a day [6], 20% comes to $30 million a day and an exit in about 1.7 days [18]. Take out Strategy's own buying and Keyrock's estimate of trading capacity falls to about 80% of reported volume [11]. The same seller then gets $24 million a day and needs about 2.1 days [19].
Keyrock warned that the arithmetic can't tell you how much liquidity would vanish if Strategy's buying ended, since other traders might behave differently too [12]. One preferred-income manager the report spoke to suggested that arbitrage firms and high-frequency traders reacting to Strategy's activity account for part of the trading near STRC's $100 reference price [13]. If those firms step back when Strategy does, 80% is an upper bound.
The larger exposure is the price. On STRC's worst 10% of trading days, depth within a 0.1% move falls from about $28 million to $6.5 million [14], a cut of roughly 4.3 times [22]. According to Keyrock, the security is about four times less liquid when it trades 1% to 3% from par and roughly eight times less liquid beyond 6% [15]. Distance from par correlated with illiquidity at 0.43, against 0.10 for the size of bitcoin's daily moves [16].
If Strategy bought about a fifth of $150 million a day, its remaining $547.2 million would last roughly 18 trading days [20]. It need not spend it that way. The program is discretionary, and Strategy can modify, suspend or terminate it [5]. The buying could run out on that schedule, taper while independent demand takes over near par, or stop outright. In the last case the arbitrage volume and the price support would leave together.
I think holders should price the last case. At about $99.50, STRC sits fifty cents above $99, the point 1% below par where Keyrock's data shows liquidity dropping to roughly a quarter of normal [23]. The counter-case has evidence behind it: Strategy's share of volume has already fallen to just under 20% [3], and the price is still around $99.50 [1]. Independent buyers may already be filling in. The view is wrong if STRC holds within 1% of $100, with depth near $28 million, after the authorization is spent or suspended.
What to watch
- Strategy's next update on repurchases under the $2 billion authorization, including any decision to modify, suspend or end the program.
- A fresh read of Strategy's share of weekly STRC volume once the remaining authorization is used, to test Keyrock's estimate that ex-issuer capacity is about 80% of reported volume.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence50
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- Incentives65
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Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The buyback program has helped support STRC as its shares recovered from the mid-$70s in June to approximately $99.50, approaching the security's $100 reference price.
- [2]
Strategy's repurchases accounted for more than 20% of weekly trading volume in its variable-rate preferred stock, STRC, during almost every week of September, according to a Keyrock research report.
- [3]
Strategy's share of STRC volume reached about 28% the week of Sept. 8 before falling to just under 20% in early October.
- [4]
Strategy had spent approximately $1.45 billion of its $2 billion preferred-share repurchase authorization as of Oct. 4, leaving $547.2 million available.
- [5]
The repurchases are discretionary, and Strategy can modify, suspend, or terminate the program.
- [6]
STRC averages approximately $150 million in daily trading volume.
- [7]
Keyrock found STRC can typically absorb about $28 million in trading before its price moves 10 basis points, or 0.1%.
- [8]
Strive's SATA and Strategy's fixed-rate preferred securities each have less than $3 million in comparable market depth.
- [9]
Using an illustrative execution rate equal to 20% of daily trading volume, Keyrock estimated a $50 million STRC position could be liquidated in less than two trading days.
- [10]
The same $50 million exit would take approximately five days in SATA and six to eight weeks across Strategy's fixed-rate preferred instruments.
- [11]
Removing Strategy's buying activity reduces STRC's estimated trading capacity to approximately 80% of reported volume.
- [12]
Keyrock cautioned that the calculation does not establish how much liquidity would disappear if Strategy stopped buying, and that other market participants could change their behavior in response.
- [13]
A preferred-income manager interviewed for the report suggested some trading around STRC's $100 reference price comes from arbitrage firms and high-frequency traders responding to the issuer's activity.
ReportedSupportedSource: Unnamed preferred-income manager quoted in Keyrock report, via CryptoSlateView cited source - [14]
On the worst 10% of trading days, STRC's estimated depth within a 10-basis-point price move falls from about $28 million to $6.5 million.
- [15]
STRC is approximately four times less liquid when trading 1% to 3% away from par and roughly eight times less liquid when the deviation exceeds 6%.
- [16]
The relationship between STRC's distance from par and market illiquidity had a correlation of 0.43, compared with 0.10 for the magnitude of Bitcoin's daily price movements.
- [17]
For a company seeking to establish preferred securities as a recurring funding channel for Bitcoin accumulation, the concern is whether those instruments can sustain investor demand without continued intervention from their issuer.
- [18]
At 20% of about $150 million daily volume, a seller moves $30 million a day and clears $50 million in about 1.7 trading days.
- [19]
Excluding Strategy's buying, capacity is about $120 million a day; at 20% the seller moves $24 million a day and needs about 2.1 trading days for $50 million.
- [20]
If Strategy bought about a fifth of $150 million daily volume ($30 million a day), the remaining $547.2 million would last roughly 18 trading days.
- [21]
A $50 million sale on one of STRC's worst 10% of days is about 7.7 times the $6.5 million of depth within a 0.1% move.
- [22]
Depth on the worst 10% of days is roughly 4.3 times lower than typical depth.
- [23]
At about $99.50, STRC is fifty cents above $99, the level 1% below its $100 par where the band of roughly four-times-lower liquidity begins.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cryptoslate.comStrategy’s $150 million-a-day STRC market has a hidden dependency on its own buybacks
1 article · October 9, 2026
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- Corporate Bitcoin treasuriesFollow
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