Memory costs push third-quarter smartphone shipments down an estimated 20%
Counterpoint Research estimates global smartphone shipments fell about 20% year on year in the third quarter, the weakest since 2012. Retail prices rose roughly 20% this year as makers passed higher memory costs to buyers, Korea JoongAng Daily reported.
The Investor · Invest desk
Samsung's smartphone shipments fell 3% in the third quarter. Global shipments fell an estimated 20% year on year, per preliminary Counterpoint Research figures. Xiaomi's shipments fell more than 30% from a year earlier.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung's shipment fall, third quarter | 3% | 11 | |
| Global fall, estimated | 20% year on year | 1 | |
| Xiaomi fall, more than | 30% year on year | 10 |
What happened
- Samsung raised Galaxy S26 prices on Oct. 1, seven months after launch, and the 1TB Ultra model became roughly 270,000 won more expensive.
- Apple set higher launch prices for the iPhone 18 Pro series than for its predecessor and raised iPhone 17 retail prices in Korea.
- Chipmakers have raised output of high bandwidth memory and server DRAM, which cuts into the capacity left for smartphone memory.
- Xiaomi's shipments fell more than 30% in the quarter, and Oppo and Vivo each fell more than 20%.
- Samsung's DS division earned 89.2 trillion won in the second quarter while its DX division, which includes smartphones, lost 800 billion won.
Why it matters
- cost Budget and midrange makers pay either way: raising prices risks losing price-sensitive buyers, and holding prices cuts into already slim margins.
- constraint Pre-surge memory stockpiles are the one cushion, and HSBC expects them to run out, so margins should weaken after volumes already have.
- decision Xiaomi and others are putting their range into premium models and out of budget ones, a choice Counterpoint expects to cut sub-$200 shipments about 40% by 2030.
- exposure Buyers who delay upgrades or choose used and refurbished phones take volume away from makers' new lineups.
Put the two 20% figures side by side and a sum falls out. Shipments at 0.80 of last year's level and retail prices at 1.20 give 0.96, so buyers spent about 4% less in total on a fifth fewer phones [24]. The sum is loose. One input is Counterpoint's preliminary third-quarter shipment estimate [1], the other a retail price rise that Korea JoongAng Daily dates only to "this year" [4], and neither adjusts for mix. Korea JoongAng Daily attributes the drop mainly to surging memory prices and component shortages [3]. If the sum holds even roughly, buyers are paying about as much for far fewer phones, and the paper's own framing puts the gain with memory chipmakers [2].
Samsung moved its own price by less than that average. The entry Galaxy S26 rose 12.3%, from 1.25 million won to 1.404 million won [19][6], though a list price on one model and a global average retail price are different measures. Its shipments fell 3%, 17 points better than the market [11][20], and the source credits early Z Fold8 sales and steady component supply for the Galaxy A series [11].
Inside Samsung the cost is partly an internal transfer. Hana Securities estimates the DX division lost 2.1 trillion won in the third quarter [16], and Eugene Investment and Shinhan Securities each forecast 1.8 trillion won [17]. That is 2.6 times the second-quarter loss on Hana's figure and 2.25 times on the other two [21][22]. Even Hana's number is 2.4% of the 89.2 trillion won the DS division earned in the second quarter [15][23], though that compares two different quarters. A phone maker with no memory arm has no such offset, and we would expect the cost to show up in its volumes or its margins.
In our view the cost lands on makers that have neither the pricing room nor a memory business to offset it. Two things could make that wrong. The source does not apportion the 20% drop between memory and everything else, so some of it could be demand. And if shipments recover while memory prices keep climbing (TrendForce expects smartphone DRAM prices up 8 to 13% in the third quarter [8]), the shortage is not what is holding buyers back.
What to watch
- Samsung's reported third-quarter DX operating loss against the 1.8 to 2.1 trillion won analyst estimates.
- Whether margins at phone makers weaken as HSBC expects once memory bought before the price surge is used up.
- Whether Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo post smaller shipment declines after cutting budget phone offerings.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
According to preliminary Counterpoint Research figures released on Oct. 13, global smartphone shipments fell an estimated 20 percent year on year in the third quarter, the weakest third quarter since 2012.
- [2]
The AI boom has been a boon for memory chipmakers, while for smartphone manufacturers soaring chip demand means rising parts costs.
- [3]
Surging memory prices and shortages of key components were the main culprits behind the third-quarter shipment drop.
- [4]
Smartphone makers have passed higher costs on to consumers, which pushed global retail prices up roughly 20 percent this year.
- [5]
On Oct. 1, Samsung Electronics raised prices for its Galaxy S26 series seven months after launch, and the 1TB Ultra model became roughly 270,000 won more expensive.
- [6]
The entry-level 256GB Galaxy S26 model rose around 150,000 won to 1.404 million won from 1.25 million won.
- [7]
Chipmakers have increased output of lucrative high bandwidth memory and server DRAM, cutting into the capacity for smartphone memory.
- [8]
Market tracker TrendForce expects smartphone DRAM prices to rise 8 to 13 percent in the third quarter.
- [9]
HSBC expects cost pressures on smartphone makers to intensify as their stockpiles of memory chips bought before the price surge gradually run out.
- [10]
Xiaomi's shipments fell more than 30 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier; Oppo and Vivo each posted declines of more than 20 percent.
- [11]
Samsung's shipments fell just 3 percent, supported by strong early sales of the Galaxy Z Fold8 and steady component supplies for its Galaxy A series.
- [12]
Budget and midrange smartphones are bearing the brunt of soaring memory prices; slim margins and price-sensitive customers leave little room to pass on costs, so price hikes risk driving away buyers while unchanged prices eat into profits.
- [13]
Manufacturers such as Xiaomi are scaling back budget phone offerings and shifting their focus to premium models; Counterpoint forecasts shipments of smartphones priced below $200 will fall about 40 percent by 2030 from 2025 levels, while the premium segment grows at an average annual rate of 7 percent.
- [14]
Consumers are either paying more for high-end devices or delaying upgrades in favor of used and refurbished phones.
- [15]
In the second quarter, Samsung's DS division posted an operating profit of 89.2 trillion won, while its DX division, which oversees smartphones, TVs and home appliances, recorded an operating loss of 800 billion won.
- [16]
Hana Securities estimates a third-quarter DX division loss of 2.1 trillion won.
- [17]
Eugene Investment and Shinhan Securities each forecast a third-quarter DX division loss of 1.8 trillion won.
- [18]
Apple set higher launch prices for its iPhone 18 Pro series than for its predecessor and raised retail prices for the iPhone 17 lineup in Korea.
- [19]
The entry-level 256GB Galaxy S26 price rose about 12.3%.
- [20]
Samsung's 3% shipment decline is about 17 percentage points better than the market's roughly 20% decline.
- [21]
Hana's 2.1 trillion won third-quarter DX loss estimate is about 2.6 times the 800 billion won second-quarter loss.
- [22]
The 1.8 trillion won forecasts are 2.25 times the second-quarter DX loss.
- [23]
Hana's 2.1 trillion won DX loss estimate is about 2.4% of the DS division's 89.2 trillion won second-quarter operating profit (different quarters).
- [24]
Shipments at 0.80 of last year's level times retail prices at 1.20 gives 0.96, about 4% less total consumer spending, on rough and non-matching periods.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- koreajoongangdaily.comSemiconductor supercycle a boon for chipmakers, a bane for smartphone brands
1 article · October 14, 2026
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