IDC attributes a record 22% drop in smartphone shipments to memory costs
Global smartphone shipments fell 22% year on year to 255.3 million units in the third quarter, the largest drop IDC has recorded for any quarter. IDC analysts say memory costs have risen about 350% since last year and the market has not reached bottom.
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Key figures: 255.3 million smartphones shipped worldwide in Q3 2026; about 327.3 million in Q3 2025, as implied by IDC's figures; memory costs up approximately 350% since last year and still rising, per IDC's Nabila Popal.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smartphones shipped worldwide, Q3 2026 | 255.3 million units | 1 | |
| Q3 2025 shipments, about | 327.3 million units | 17 | |
| Memory cost rise since last year, approximately | 350% | per IDC's Nabila Popal; still rising | 5 |
What happened
- IDC says memory inflation is slowing, with a low double-digit sequential increase in the third quarter against roughly 50% to 100% in prior quarters.
- IDC expects market growth to stay constrained through 2027, with any recovery pushed to 2028 at the earliest.
- Samsung and Apple kept gaining share while shipment declines at Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo deepened, and IDC says the vendor ranking is similar to last quarter's.
- Some vendors raised production plans despite weak sales, ahead of an expected tightening in component supply next year, according to IDC's Kiranjeet Kaur.
Why it matters
- decision Chinese brands with heavy low-end exposure have to choose between protecting margins and defending volume, according to IDC's Francisco Jeronimo, and demand is weakening as they choose.
- cost Buyers now carry part of the increase: IDC says many are keeping current phones longer as higher prices reach the shelf.
- constraint IDC expects vendors with scale, secure supply and a premium mix to keep gaining share in a smaller market, which leaves less room for low-end-heavy vendors to absorb costs.
- exposure Vendors that built ahead of expected supply tightness hold inventory risk into 2027 if demand stays weak, a downside IDC says it has not folded into its 2027 forecast.
In units, the drop is easier to size. A 22.0% fall to 255.3 million implies about 327 million shipments in the third quarter of 2025, a loss of roughly 72 million phones [1][17][18]. IDC describes its data as preliminary and subject to change [3].
IDC's commentary can look inconsistent. Senior research director Nabila Popal said, "However, the worst is yet to come" [4]. The same release reports that memory inflation is easing in rate [6]. The two fit together because a smaller increase is still an increase. Popal said memory costs "are still rising" on a base already about 350% above last year's [5], and IDC says other critical components remain elevated [7]. We would not treat the slowdown as relief. The release text does not say which memory products the 350% covers.
Timing sets up the next quarter's problem. IDC associate research director Kiranjeet Kaur said promotions and discounts are expected to be at their most attractive in the holiday quarter [16]. We'd expect some vendors to trade margin for volume in that window while memory costs are still rising [5]. The bill for that choice would show up in 2027 results, when IDC expects growth to remain constrained [8].
The horizon is longer than the quarter. IDC says OEMs increasingly recognize a permanent structural shift in industry cost dynamics [19]. We would hold its 2028 recovery date loosely, because it is one firm's forecast [8]. IDC's advice is to adapt: it says the vendors most likely to gain share are those that rework how they design, price and market their phones around higher costs [20].
What to watch
- Whether IDC's final third-quarter data revises the preliminary 255.3 million units or the vendor share table.
- Whether memory costs keep rising in the low double digits sequentially in the fourth quarter, or slow further.
- Whether the raised production plans show up as unsold inventory in early 2027 shipment data.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap
- Insufficient
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
IDC's preliminary Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker data show the global smartphone market shrank 22.0% year on year to 255.3 million units in the third quarter of 2026.
- [2]
IDC says the 22% decline is the highest year-on-year decline to date of any quarter.
- [3]
IDC's table notes say the data are preliminary and subject to change.
- [4]
Nabila Popal, senior research director for Worldwide Devices at IDC, said: "However, the worst is yet to come."
- [5]
Popal said memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments.
- [6]
IDC says memory inflation is beginning to slow, with a low double-digit sequential increase in Q3 compared with roughly 50%-100% sequential growth in prior quarters.
- [7]
IDC says costs remain elevated across other critical components as well.
- [8]
IDC expects market growth to be constrained through 2027, with any possible recovery pushed to 2028 at the least.
- [9]
Francisco Jeronimo, IDC vice president for Worldwide Devices, said the pressure is now moving from vendors to consumers.
- [10]
Jeronimo said that as higher prices reach the shelf, many buyers are keeping their current devices longer.
- [11]
Jeronimo said Chinese brands' exposure to low-end smartphones forces them to choose between protecting margins and defending volume just as demand weakens.
- [12]
Jeronimo said volumes will stay under pressure in the coming quarters while vendors with scale, secure supply and a premium mix keep gaining share in a smaller market.
- [13]
IDC's Kiranjeet Kaur said vendor ranking remains similar to last quarter, while Samsung and Apple continue to gain share as shipment declines at Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo intensify.
- [14]
Kaur said that despite sluggish sales, some vendors raised production plans ahead of an expected tightening in component supply next year.
- [15]
Kaur said that if demand remains weak, the raised production plans could lead to inventory build-up heading into 2027, adding a further downside risk to IDC's 2027 forecast.
- [16]
Kaur said promotions and discounts are expected to be at their most attractive in the holiday quarter, and that consumers who cannot put off a purchase are likely best served by holiday-quarter offers rather than waiting for prices to ease.
- [17]
A 22.0% year-on-year fall to 255.3 million units implies about 327.3 million units shipped in the third quarter of 2025.
- [18]
The implied year-on-year loss is roughly 72 million units.
- [19]
IDC says OEMs are increasingly recognizing that they face a permanent structural shift in industry cost dynamics.
- [20]
IDC says vendors that adapt their product, pricing and demand generation strategies to a higher cost structure will be best positioned to gain share.
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Topics
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