LeadershipNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
Voters back Labour's triple lock change 44% to 24% in a Freshwater Strategy poll
Freshwater Strategy polling for City AM finds 44% back Labour's triple lock change and 55% back the Tory inheritance tax pledge. Both are party pledges for the next election, and the 1,235-voter poll was fielded on 9 to 11 October 2026.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Support for the triple lock change leads opposition by 20 points, and 32% of respondents are in neither group. 55% of voters back the Conservatives' pledge to remove inheritance taxes on family homes, as do 58% of Reform voters.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Triple lock change: support's lead over opposition | 20 points | 15 | |
| Neither side, triple lock | 32% | 16 | |
| All voters, Tory pledge | 55 % back it | 7 | |
| Reform voters, Tory pledge | 58 % back it | 10 |
What happened
- Government analysis says the proposed change could save about £15bn a year by 2040.
- Reform UK's Robert Jenrick criticised Kemi Badenoch over the policy, saying in a speech that the Conservatives were "no longer a national party".
- In voting intention Labour is on 29 per cent, Reform on 23 after a two-point fall in October, and the Conservatives on 22.
Why it matters
- cost Pensioners would bear the slower pension rises that Burnham says would fund the care service, and voters over 55 are more divided on the change than those aged 18 to 34.
- contradiction Jenrick's charge that the pledge favours the wealthy sits against the response of Reform's own voters, a majority of whom back it.
- constraint The 2.8 per cent margin of error exceeds the one-point gap between Reform and the Conservatives, so the poll cannot order the two.
The poll records approval of two party pledges at one point in time. Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1,235 eligible voters online from 9 to 11 October 2026, with a stated margin of error of 2.8 per cent [1][2]. On the triple lock, support leads opposition by 20 points [15]. Another 32 per cent are in neither camp [16].
Labour's pension change is tied to a second pledge, and voters were asked about the two in different ways. The proposal would raise the state pension by inflation or 2.5 per cent [4]. Andy Burnham, who announced the pledge at the party conference, says the savings would fund a new National Care Service [13][14]. As City AM reports the results, the pension figure measures support for the change [3], while the care figure measures whether the service makes a voter more or less likely to back Labour [5]. That second question nets 13 points [17], so the 20-point and 13-point margins are not a like-for-like ranking. The £15bn saving is a 2040 figure, 14 years after the fieldwork [23].
The Conservative pledge draws broader approval and has a stated price. A majority, 55 per cent, backed scrapping inheritance tax on family homes [7]. The report gives no period for the £6bn cost estimate, so it cannot be set against the pension saving's annual figure [21].
Jenrick's charge is that the pledge serves the wealthy. "Kemi knows who her people are - She's for millionaires, not Mansfield. The wealthy, not workers," Jenrick said [8]. The poll's answer comes from his own side's voters. Some 58 per cent of Reform voters backed Badenoch's pledge [10], and 41 per cent said it would make them more likely to endorse the Conservatives at an election [11].
On fiscal direction, the poll supports a narrow reading. City AM attributes the shift in opinion to announcements at recent party conferences [22]. In our view the data show that Labour and the Conservatives each picked a pledge with plurality or majority backing in this sample. They do not show which party would enact its pledge. Labour, Reform and the Conservatives sit within seven points of each other [19], and the poll does not convert vote share into seats.
What to watch
- A published cost for the National Care Service, which would show whether the 2040 pension saving covers it.
- The next Freshwater Strategy wave, to see whether Reform recovers the two points it lost in October and whether its one-point gap with the Conservatives holds.
- A dated period for the £6bn inheritance tax estimate and any funding the Conservatives attach to the pledge.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1,235 eligible UK voters aged 18+ online between 9 and 11 October 2026.
- [2]
The survey's stated margin of error is +/- 2.8 per cent; the data is weighted to be representative of UK voters and Freshwater Strategy is a member of the British Polling Council.
- [3]
44 per cent of voters support a proposed change to the triple lock on pensions, compared with 24 per cent who oppose it.
- [4]
Under Labour's proposal the state pension would rise only by inflation or 2.5 per cent.
- [5]
Burnham's pledge to create a free-at-the-point-of-use care service would make about 33 per cent of people more likely to back Labour at an election and 20 per cent less likely; 44 per cent said it would make 'no difference'.
- [6]
Voters aged over 55 are more divided on the triple lock change than those aged between 18 and 34.
- [7]
A majority of voters (55 per cent) backed the Conservatives' pledge to remove inheritance taxes on family homes, and about one third (32 per cent) strongly supported it.
- [8]
"Kemi knows who her people are - She's for millionaires, not Mansfield. The wealthy, not workers," said Reform UK's Robert Jenrick.
- [9]
Reform UK's Robert Jenrick said in a speech that the Conservatives were "no longer a national party".
- [10]
The majority of Reform voters (58 per cent) backed Badenoch's inheritance tax pledge.
- [11]
About 41 per cent of Reform's voters said the inheritance tax pledge would make them more likely to endorse the Conservatives at an election.
- [12]
The latest data put Labour on 29 per cent of the vote share, Reform on 23 per cent (down two points in October) and the Conservatives on 22 per cent.
- [13]
At Labour's party conference, Andy Burnham announced that the party would enter the next election on a pledge to drop the triple lock on pensions.
- [14]
Burnham says the savings from the pension change would be used to fund a new National Care Service.
- [15]
Support for the triple lock change leads opposition by 20 points.
- [16]
32 per cent of respondents are in neither the supporting nor the opposing group on the triple lock change.
- [17]
The care service nets 13 points on the more-likely versus less-likely question.
- [18]
Reform leads the Conservatives by one point, smaller than the 2.8 per cent margin of error.
- [19]
Labour, Reform and the Conservatives are within seven points of each other.
- [20]
Government analysis says the changes could save about £15bn a year by 2040.
- [21]
Economists estimate the Conservative policy of removing inheritance tax on family homes will cost about £6bn.
- [22]
City AM attributes the reset in public opinion to the impact of announcements at recent party conferences.
- [23]
The 2040 saving date is 14 years after the 2026 fieldwork.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cityam.comLabour and Tory pledges get public backing
1 article · October 12, 2026
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