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InvestAlso reported elsewhere2 publishers2 min readPublished

OpenAI's $20 billion run-rate gap traces to an investor estimate made for comparison with Anthropic

OpenAI says its annualized revenue run rate is about $50 billion, not the $70 billion in earlier reports, a $20 billion gap that weighed on AI stocks. The higher figure was an estimate investors built to compare OpenAI with Anthropic, so the stocks moved on the gap between an outside estimate and OpenAI's own number.

The Investor · Invest desk

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What happened

  • Annualized revenue run rate has become the figure most discussion of OpenAI and Anthropic centers on as both prepare for potential IPOs.
  • According to the FT and Bloomberg, Anthropic counts the full gross value of sales made through cloud partners such as Amazon, while OpenAI counts only its share of sales through partners led by Microsoft.
  • Investors who tried to restate the two companies' figures on a like-for-like basis concluded there was not enough information to do it accurately.
  • Microsoft, Oracle, Google, Amazon and Nvidia hold significant equity stakes in, or major commercial ties to, one or both companies.

Why it matters

  • exposure Public shareholders in AI's listed backers and partners are taking price risk on figures that each private company defines for itself and can dispute after the fact.
  • constraint With no quarterly accounts from either company, investors have few other inputs, so the next leaked or disputed run rate can move the same group of stocks again.
  • decision Ahead of possible listings, both companies must choose whether to keep leading with run rate, the metric OpenAI used in January to announce a 233% surge, or to give revenue on a stated basis.

Put OpenAI's two figures next to Anthropic's and which company leads depends on the definition. On the companies' own numbers, Anthropic's $65 billion in August [7] runs $15 billion ahead of OpenAI's roughly $50 billion in September, as reported by the Financial Times [3]. On the investors' $70 billion [12], OpenAI would have led by $5 billion [16]. The comparison also spans two different months. The gap between OpenAI's two figures is about 29% of the higher one [15].

If the gap is mostly accounting, OpenAI measured on Anthropic's gross basis [10] sits somewhere near the investors' number, and the AI stocks that came under pressure [2] moved on a definition. If the investors' adjustment was too generous, OpenAI trails on any basis and the pressure on the stocks was a fair markdown.

A third reading holds whichever of those is right, and it concerns both companies (or rather, the metric they share). A run rate takes a month or a quarter of revenue and extrapolates it across a year on the assumption that the pace holds [9]. Anthropic took in $4.6 billion last year while ending it at a $9 billion run rate [13], so booked revenue was about 51% of the exit figure [17]. The same measure then rose about 7.2 times, to $65 billion, by August [18]. OpenAI is projected to book $35 billion in 2026, about half the run rate it expects by year-end, according to sources cited by Calcalist [19]. Doubling the projection puts that year-end rate near $70 billion [20], close to the figure the market had been using. The sources did not say which accounting basis the projection uses.

We think the move was mostly about how revenue is counted and only partly about how much OpenAI sells. The counter-case is that Anthropic is ahead on the numbers each company stands behind [16], and a generous investor estimate deserved its markdown. If either company publishes revenue with its cloud-partner treatment stated [10], and OpenAI's comparable figure still trails Anthropic's by something near $15 billion, the pressure on the stocks was a correct judgement of the business and we were wrong.

What to watch

  • Any disclosure from OpenAI or Anthropic stating whether cloud-partner sales are counted gross or net, the input investors said they lacked.
  • Whether OpenAI's next run-rate figure, on its own basis, reaches the $70 billion level before the year ends.
  • Anthropic's next run-rate figure, which would show whether the $65 billion August number was a sustained pace or a peak month.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+25
Incentives65
Confidence40
Why these scores

Claim ledger

Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.

  1. [1]

    OpenAI says its annualized revenue run rate is about $50 billion, not the $70 billion cited in earlier reports.

    ReportedSupportedView cited source
  2. [2]

    A report that OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate was $20 billion lower than previously reported rattled markets over the weekend, weighing on stocks across the AI ecosystem.

    ReportedSupportedView cited source
  3. [3]

    The Financial Times reported that OpenAI's revenue run rate was approximately $50 billion in September, $20 billion lower than previously reported.

    ReportedSupportedSource: Financial Times, as reported by CalcalistView cited source

Sources

2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. calcalistech.com

    1 article · October 11, 2026

    The $20 billion gap that shook AI stocks reveals a problem with the industry’s number | Ctech
  2. cryptobriefing.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI and Anthropic count revenue differently, and investors are confused

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