Missing OpenAI and Anthropic megarounds pull North American venture funding down 35% to $92 billion

A $92 billion quarter that sits 35% below its predecessor implies about $141.5 billion in the second quarter, a gap of roughly $49.5 billion ^[2][16][17]. Crunchbase's sentence on late-stage funding pairs OpenAI's $110 billion financing with the first quarter and Anthropic's $65 billion with the second ^[5]. If that pairing holds, one Anthropic round is larger than the entire decline ^[18]. Without it, the second quarter comes to about $76.5 billion, some $15.5 billion less than the third quarter raised ^[18].

The third quarter was the less concentrated of the two. Its four largest late-stage rounds (Databricks at $5 billion, Crusoe at $3.9 billion, The Boring Co. at $3 billion and Cognition at $2 billion) add up to $13.9 billion, about 15% of the total ^[6][19]. The Anthropic round by itself was about 46% of the quarter before ^[20].

The stage data shows where the money went. Early-stage and seed totals both came in below the second quarter's ^[8][10], so second-quarter early and seed funding exceeded the third quarter's combined $25.6 billion. That leaves at most about $50.9 billion of second-quarter late-stage money outside the Anthropic round ^[21]. The third quarter's $66.45 billion of late-stage funding clears that ceiling by at least $15.5 billion ^[22].

Crunchbase says the dip does not appear to reflect any broad weakening in the venture climate ^[1]. The counter-case comes from its own early-stage numbers. Early-stage dealmaking fell particularly sharply from a multiyear peak ^[9], while early-stage round counts stayed close to the prior quarter ^[4]. Flat counts and fewer dollars mean smaller average rounds, in a quarter that still included a $1.1 billion Series A for River AI and a $660 million Series B for Valar Atomics ^[15]. Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic raises at that stage. Seed also came in a bit below a year earlier, though Crunchbase expects the preliminary figure to rise as late-reported deals are added ^[10][11].

AI-focused rounds took $61 billion in the third quarter, roughly two-thirds of the total ^[12]. The 50% year-on-year rise puts the year-ago total for all US and Canadian startups combined at about $61 billion ^[23].

I think the third quarter, up 50% on the year with round counts intact, is a better gauge of venture appetite than a first half in which two rounds of $110 billion and $65 billion set the totals ^[3][4][5]. The view fails if fourth-quarter early-stage round counts start falling alongside early-stage dollars. A decline in both would make the third quarter's smaller rounds the start of a pullback.