Science1 publisherNot yet confirmed elsewhere2 min readPublished
National Trust plans its heritage sites against a 40-year worst case for extreme weather
National Trust manager Justin Scully says protecting every heritage site from climate change may not be possible as the charity plans 40 years ahead. That points to some places being kept in altered form, paid for by a charity that receives no guaranteed government money.
The Scientist · Science desk
What happened
- Scully said heavy rain can overwhelm drainage and soak into walls, and that repeated wetting, drying, freezing and thawing harms stonework.
- The trust said its coastal sites are among those facing the greatest climate pressures, from erosion and rising sea levels.
- A trust spokesperson said conservation decisions will weigh a place's significance, its benefit to people and whether an approach is sustainable long term.
- The trust wants climate resilience made a national priority, with a single Cabinet-level minister coordinating how the whole of government prepares.
Compiled by The ScientistSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- decision Putting long-term sustainability beside significance means a celebrated property with an unsustainable fix is where the trust will have to pick what survives in its present form.
- cost The trust did not give a figure for adaptation costs, so members, grant bodies and ministers cannot yet judge the size of the bill it is planning to meet.
- precedent If government creates a Cabinet-level resilience minister, heritage owners would have one office in government to press for long-term adaptation investment.
Justin Scully, who manages Fountains Abbey and Studley Royal for the trust [1], described the planning method in one sentence. "We've got to think about what could be the worst possible outcome and then work backwards from that," he said [7]. I think the design is right for an owner of buildings and landscapes that cannot be moved. It fixes the worst case first and then asks what each property needs to get through it. The trust is applying that test to the properties and landscapes it manages over the next 40 years [6].
The BBC report does not include the climate projections or emissions assumptions behind the trust's 40-year view. A plan built on a moderate scenario and one built on a severe scenario would lead to different decisions about drains, planting and coastline.
Scully's warning is about form as much as survival. He said the trust may have to accept that it cannot save everything as it is today [4]. At Fountains Abbey, the work could mean more drainage capacity and larger gutters for heavier rain, along with gardens that look different [8]. He said the trust needed to be "more open to how we would adapt," with gardens potentially becoming "less manicured" [9]. "People expect things to look perfect and crisp," he said [10].
"These last two summers have really brought this home to ourselves and to our visitors," Scully said [5]. Two summers are a short record for a 40-year plan, and the case for planning rests on the scenarios more than on recent weather. He also said the effects of extreme heat, heavy rain and wildfire risk were already showing up on historic structures, moorland and gardens [2]. "The threat is tangible," he said [20].
Scully said some adaptation processes could be "very expensive" [16]. The trust can apply for project grants from public bodies and lottery funds [15], and it said it would continue to invest significantly in conservation [18]. "Climate change is affecting many of the places we care for, and our conservation work has to evolve with it," a trust spokesperson said [12].
What to watch
- Whether the trust publishes the climate scenarios and emissions assumptions that define its 40-year worst case.
- A cost estimate for adaptation, or a named property where the trust decides to let the fabric or gardens change.
- Any government response to the call for a Cabinet-level minister for climate resilience.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Justin Scully, manager of the National Trust's Fountains Abbey and Studley Royal, said protecting all heritage sites from the impact of climate change "just may not be possible."
- [2]
Scully said extreme heat, heavy rainfall and wildfire risk were already affecting gardens, moorland and historic structures.
- [3]
Scully said heavy rain could overwhelm drainage systems and penetrate walls, causing damp and erosion, while repeated cycles of wetting, drying, freezing and thawing could harm stonework.
- [4]
Scully said the organisation may have to accept it cannot save everything as it is today.
- [5]
"These last two summers have really brought this home to ourselves and to our visitors."
- [6]
The National Trust is planning for more extreme weather by looking at what could happen to the properties and landscapes it manages over the next 40 years.
- [7]
"We've got to think about what could be the worst possible outcome and then work backwards from that."
- [8]
At Fountains Abbey, the planning could include increasing drainage capacity and gutters to cope with heavier rainfall, and could result in changing the appearance of the gardens.
- [9]
Scully said the trust needed to be "more open to how we would adapt," with gardens potentially becoming "less manicured".
- [10]
"People expect things to look perfect and crisp."
- [11]
The trust said coastal sites were among those facing the greatest climate pressures, including erosion and rising sea levels.
- [12]
"Climate change is affecting many of the places we care for, and our conservation work has to evolve with it."
- [13]
Conservation decisions would consider the significance of a place, the benefit it brings to people and whether an approach is sustainable long term, a trust spokesperson said.
- [14]
The National Trust is a charity and receives no guaranteed government money.
- [15]
The trust can apply for project grants from public bodies and lottery funds.
- [16]
Scully said some adaptation processes could be "very expensive".
- [17]
The trust did not give a figure for adaptation costs.
- [18]
The trust said it would continue to invest significantly in conservation.
- [19]
The trust called for climate resilience to become a national priority, led by a Cabinet-level minister coordinating preparedness across government and supporting long-term investment.
- [20]
"Climate change isn't a thing that's happening out there to other people, it's actually impacting ourselves and the places we love. The threat is tangible."
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- bbc.co.ukTrust warns of 'tangible' climate threat to heritage sites
1 article · October 3, 2026
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