London managed one IPO in the third quarter, a £29.8m AIM float

The nine-month total is lopsided. Take the third quarter's £29.8m, raised by the AIM listing of 1947 Oil & Gas plc ^[2], out of the £606.9m raised in 2026 ^[4], and the other seven listings account for £577.1m ^[18]. The quarter's single deal is 4.9% of the year's proceeds ^[19]. City AM, relaying EY, calls Uznif the only one of note: Uzbekistan's national investment fund listed a 30 per cent stake in London and Tashkent in May ^[5]. The report does not give proceeds for Uznif or for Airtel Money, which debuted this week at a £5.3bn valuation ^[6], so how much of the £577.1m rests on one deal is unknown.

The year-on-year comparison needs care. A handful of larger deals can lift proceeds while the number of companies getting through stays small, and in our view the count is the better gauge of access for a mid-sized issuer. City AM reports that capital raised rose significantly from £199.1m in the same period of 2025 ^[7]. A third-quarter figure of £29.8m cannot be a rise on £199.1m, so the comparison has to be the nine-month total, and £606.9m is about 3.05 times £199.1m ^[20].

EY and PwC give different causes, and the cause decides how long the drought lasts. EY's UKI IPO leader, Scott McCubbin, put the absence of listings down to a quiet summer ^[8]. PwC UK's capital markets director, Kat Krastov, has earlier pinned the slowdown on companies coping with the aftermath of the Middle East conflict, with its widespread "macroeconomic uncertainty", as well as on developments in fiscal policy ^[9]. A seasonal cause fades by itself in the autumn. A macroeconomic one waits on events. Seven of the eight listings came before the summer ^[18], so the summer accounts for one quarter of the nine months.

EY's own forecast puts the recovery at the edge of the year. McCubbin argued that most firms mulling an IPO are looking to 2027 ^[10]. He pointed to significant pent-up demand after years of subdued issuance and said that, as confidence improves, it could begin to show up as activity in Q4 and early 2027 ^[11]. Fintech Zilch is among the companies signalling a listing next year, while hopes that Boots would list ended this month when the Weston family struck a deal to buy the group for nearly $9bn ^[12]. McCubbin added that decisions in the Autumn Budget could harm the pipeline ^[13]. Healey has reportedly ruled out equalising capital gains tax with income tax rates, and industry figures want him to go further and scrap the 0.5 per cent stamp duty charged on UK shares ^[14].

An issuer deciding this quarter has two options. It can list in Q4 with the Budget unresolved, or it can wait for the Budget and give up the earlier window McCubbin described.

The drought is local. Global markets recorded 387 IPOs in the quarter, raising $95.6bn, and $290bn so far this year against last year's $114.4bn ^[15]. Middle Eastern and African markets led with 202 listings, including 138 in India, and Asia-Pacific had fewer listings but the highest proceeds at $45.9bn ^[16]. Grant Humphrey, an EY partner, said the test now is whether the pace can hold up amid rising interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and tougher scrutiny of AI investment ^[17].