Musk, Amodei, Altman and the CIA's director all reach for nuclear precedent, and a Foreign Affairs essay sets out why the three governance designs built on it assume a traceable inventory and state ownership that frontier AI lacks.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Tehran's unified command is treating renewed US action as a settled decision and has threatened the region's American bases, while the chairman of parliament's security committee says the Hormuz agreement is being held up.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives80
- Confidence45
Netanyahu put Iran two weeks from a nuclear weapon after the IAEA sent Tehran's file to the Security Council and said restricted access leaves it unable to verify the material. The talks contract moved on the words.
Reality
- Evidence16
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+62
- Incentives78
- Confidence20
The Board of Governors sent Iran's file to the Security Council on the same day Rafael Grossi confirmed construction at Pickaxe Mountain, a site the agency has been asking to inspect since mid-2025.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence35
A study of Copperbelt geology and plant throughput estimates that 25 years of cobalt hydroxide shipments carried natural uranium, less than a tenth of it declared to the IAEA. The DRC is now testing outgoing loads.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives68
- Confidence38
The order to "substantially reduce" US-South Korea exercises came with no meeting scheduled and no public reply from Pyongyang. That makes it a planning input, not a headline.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives68
- Confidence54