InvestNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher3 min readPublished
Korea's IPO pop is gone: Q3 debuts average minus 4.62% after Q2's 132%
Eight second-quarter listings averaged a 132.4% first-day gain. The ten that followed averaged a loss, and one book has already priced below its range.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The ten that listed between July 1 and the 25th averaged minus 4.62% on debut, with several breaking below offer immediately.
- First-half IPO proceeds came to 1.1 trillion won, down 48.7% year on year.
- A cornerstone investor system and pre-bookbuilding process take effect in November, with pre-allocation conditional on six-month lockups.
Why it matters
- decision Subscribing to every deal and selling into the open was a valid strategy at a 132.4% average and is a losing one at minus 4.62%, so allocation now has to be underwritten name by name.
- cost The concession has moved from the aftermarket to the pricing table: Skylabs' selling shareholders absorbed roughly 31% off their range midpoint rather than handing a pop to day-one buyers.
- constraint With minority-shareholder consent now required for spun-off subsidiary listings, the candidates most able to wait have the strongest reason to, which keeps the supply that would test real demand...
- precedent A book with 0.17% voluntary lockups gives underwriters a documented argument for cornerstone allocations in November, and gives issuers a reason to accept the lockup terms attached to them.
The number that should govern allocation decisions in Seoul is not a quarterly average. It is 0.17%: the share of bids in Skylabs' institutional book that carried voluntary lockup commitments, the lowest of any listing this year, according to the Korea Exchange data cited by Seoul Economic Daily [13]. Inverted, 99.83% of participating demand kept the right to sell on the opening day [23]. A book assembled that way does not establish a price. It schedules supply.
That explains the asymmetry between the two quarters better than sentiment does. Second-quarter debuts averaged 132.4% against offering prices while the KOSPI itself rose 67.7% [1][5], which made IPO participation a roughly 1.96x levered proxy on the index [18]. Leverage does not care about direction. With the KOSPI down 20.45% and the KOSDAQ down 9.72% since last month [6], the third quarter's average of minus 4.62% [3] is the mild part of the story. HL Genomics fell 58.6% on debut, about 12.7 times the quarterly average loss, and Lemon Healthcare and Delicious traded to roughly half their offering prices [4][22]. A 137 point swing in average first-day return between consecutive quarters [17] is not a market repricing risk gradually.
Supply scarcity did not cushion any of it, which is the more useful signal. Only 17 companies listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ in the first half excluding SPAC mergers and venue transfers, against a decade average of 27, some 37% below [8][20]. Proceeds of 1.1 trillion won were down 48.7%, implying about 2.14 trillion won a year earlier [9][19], when LG CNS and Seoul Guarantee Insurance were among four large deals; this year K bank has been the only sizable one [10]. Fewer deals chasing the same institutional capital should have supported pricing. It did not, so the marginal buyer in the second quarter was not an underweight long-term holder.
Skylabs is where that arithmetic lands on an issuer. It priced at 10,000 won, about 20% under the bottom of a 13,000 to 16,000 won range and the first completed listing this year to price below range [12]. Measured from the midpoint, the concession is 31% [21]. The discount that used to be handed to day-one buyers is now being taken at the pricing table instead.
November's cornerstone investor system and pre-bookbuilding process aim precisely at the 0.17% problem, allowing pre-allocation against lockups of six months or longer [14]. Whether it binds depends on the roughly 40 companies that filed for reviews in the second half, and on Sono International, Goodai Global and Musinsa [15]. One caveat on the underlying data: the same account has the KOSDAQ closing at 827.15 while stating the index has stayed below 800 since the 1st of last month [24], and the depth of that drawdown is what the IPO desks are actually trading.
What to watch
- Whether Sono International clears review and prices inside its range, or joins the wait-and-see queue of roughly 40 second-half filers.
- The voluntary lockup share in the next few books: a second reading near zero would make 0.17% a pattern rather than one bad book.
- How much of the first November deals is actually placed with cornerstone investors accepting six-month-plus lockups.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives46
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The eight companies that debuted on the domestic Korean market in the second quarter posted an average first-day return of 132.4% against their offering prices, according to the Korea Exchange on the 25th.
- [2]
Three second-quarter debutants, MakinaRocks, Polled and Cosmo Robotics, quadrupled from their offering prices on their first trading day.
- [3]
The 10 companies that listed between July 1 and the 25th posted an average first-day return of minus 4.62%.
- [4]
Lemon Healthcare and Delicious fell to about half their offering prices, while HL Genomics plunged 58.6%.
- [6]
Since last month through the 25th, the KOSPI and the KOSDAQ have fallen 20.45% and 9.72% respectively.
- [7]
The KOSPI closed at 6,742.74 on the 25th, up 0.68% from the previous session, and has not closed above 7,000 since the 23rd of last month.
- [8]
Excluding SPAC mergers, KOSDAQ-to-KOSPI transfers and Konex-related moves, only 17 companies listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ in the first half of this year, below the 27 that listed on average in the first half over the past decade.
- [9]
First-half IPO proceeds totaled 1.1 trillion won, down 48.7% from a year earlier.
- [10]
Four large deals including LG CNS and Seoul Guarantee Insurance came to market in the first half of last year, while K bank has been the only sizable IPO this year.
- [11]
Under dual-listing guidelines finalized last month, a company seeking to list a subsidiary spun off through a physical division must take additional steps including securing the consent of minority shareholders in the parent, which has prolonged wait-and-see stances among IPO candidates.
- [12]
Skylabs, a maker of ring-type blood pressure monitors that bookbuilt from the 14th to the 21st, set its offering price at 10,000 won on the 25th, about 20% below the bottom of its 13,000 to 16,000 won indicative range, the first case this year of a completed listing priced below the range.
- [13]
The share of bids in Skylabs' book carrying voluntary lockup commitments came to 0.17% of participating volume, the lowest among this year's new listings.
- [14]
A cornerstone investor system and a pre-bookbuilding process take effect in November, letting companies gauge institutional demand before filing a securities registration statement and allocate part of an offering in advance on the condition of lockups of six months or longer.
- [15]
Sono International filed for a preliminary KOSPI listing review at the end of June, Goodai Global and Musinsa are seen as possible candidates, and about 40 companies have filed for IPO reviews in the second half.
- [16]
An investment banking industry official said returns for KOSDAQ investors have deteriorated and fed through to the IPO market, and that the slump will continue if stock market uncertainty keeps recurring.
ReportedSupportedSource: unnamed investment banking industry official quoted by Seoul Economic DailyView cited source - [17]
The average first-day return fell by 137.02 percentage points between the second and third quarters.
- [18]
Second-quarter IPO first-day returns were about 1.96 times the KOSPI's second-quarter gain.
- [19]
First-half proceeds a year earlier were about 2.14 trillion won.
- [20]
This year's 17 first-half listings are about 37% below the decade average of 27.
- [21]
Skylabs' 10,000 won price is about 31% below the 14,500 won midpoint of its indicative range.
- [22]
HL Genomics' 58.6% first-day fall is about 12.7 times the third quarter's average first-day loss of 4.62%.
- [23]
99.83% of participating volume in Skylabs' book carried no voluntary lockup commitment.
- [24]
The KOSDAQ ended at 827.15 on the 25th and, per the same report, has stayed below 800 since the 1st of last month.
- [25]
With a growing number of stocks failing to recover their offering prices after listing, analysts expect a sharper divide between winners and losers in the IPO market.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comIPO Shares Slide Below Offering Prices as Market Cools
1 article · August 25, 2026
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