One KOSDAQ IPO has raised more than a trillion won since the board opened in 1996

Public money is already in some of these companies. Korea Exchange steers issuers toward one board or the other with informal guidance during listing consultations ^[12]. The Sedaily editorial making the case argues that companies which took policy money could be pointed at KOSDAQ through guidelines ^[33]. The National Growth Fund invested this year in Rebellions, Upstage, FuriosaAI, LigaChem Biosciences and Wonik Robotics ^[13].

Then the question is what the board can absorb. Set against the 7.1961 trillion won that changed hands on the 18th ^[23], Celltrion Healthcare's trillion-won offering would equal about 14% of a single day's turnover ^[27]. January's daily average was more than twice the 18th's level, so above roughly 14.4 trillion won ^[28]. Deals of 100 billion won or more arrive one or two a year ^[8].

The editorial includes no figures for the proceeds of the two STAR Market listings, or for the valuations the Nasdaq-bound Korean companies expect ^[35]. So the discount an issuer accepts by staying home is unpriced. Unitree's debut is the one comparison on offer: 460% above the offering price is 5.6 times the price the book was built at ^[6]. CXMT became the most valuable company on the mainland market on day one ^[4].

The case for fixing supply first comes from Tokyo. In April 2022 the exchange folded five markets into three, Prime, Standard and Growth, and made delisting mandatory for companies that miss the listing requirements ^[16]. The editorial credits that with higher corporate values on Prime and an inflow of foreign money ^[17]. Seoul's version is stalled. Financial authorities want a promotion-and-relegation system for KOSDAQ and the industry is pushing back hard ^[18], the objection being that dividing companies by size or short-term earnings stamps them as a "second division" ^[19]. Lee So-young, the nominee for minister of SMEs and startups, said uniform classification based on market capitalization and earnings could create a hierarchy among companies and a stigma effect ^[20]. The plan to raise the market-cap threshold for delisting has been put back six months, with the market slump given as the reason ^[21].

In my view the steering proposals act on where a listing happens. What drove the money out sits elsewhere: turnover less than half January's ^[23], an index about a third below its first-half high ^[29], and new shares frequently trading below their offering prices ^[25]. KOSDAQ is about 7% of domestic market capitalisation, the share it held 30 years ago ^[22]; the rest of the market is roughly 13 times its size ^[30]. The counter-argument is composition. The editorial says the limits of leaning on already-listed secondary battery and biotech names are clear ^[32]. If what left was demand for that mix, then adding a few AI chip designers and removing the zombies changes which companies are listed.

I would take daily turnover back above 14 trillion won ^[28] as evidence that nothing structural had broken. A KOSDAQ book priced anywhere near Celltrion Healthcare's 2017 size ^[7] would be evidence that supply was the binding problem all along.