Ships reported 12 attacks near Hormuz in one week, the most since the war began
BBC Verify's analysis of UKMTO data shows 12 ships reported attacks near Hormuz in the week of 5-11 October, the most since the war began. Oil flows through the strait have already slipped from September's recovery, so operators with fuel or freight exposure are planning on a short record.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Kpler data show about 12.6 million barrels per day went through the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October. The flow was 15 million barrels per day at the end of September, and the pre-war baseline was some 17 million.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flow through the strait on 13 October, about | 12.6 m barrels/day | 6 | |
| End-September flow | 15 m barrels/day | 7 | |
| Pre-war baseline, some | 17 m barrels/day | 8 |
What happened
- Six of the 12 vessels were struck on the Sunday, a one-day high according to UKMTO, and four more attacks have been reported so far this week.
- US Navy data indicate the number of vessels given help to navigate the strait in the first 10 days of October was up 85% on the same period in August.
- A drone struck the tanker Petro Dolphin near Sohar Anchorage in Oman, more than 250km from the strait, according to maritime intelligence firm Vanguard.
- The container ship GFS Pride sank after a strike by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday, and 21 crew were safely evacuated.
Why it matters
- Who's exposed exposure Cargo that moves on the Gulf Arab shuttle system is exposed well beyond the strait itself, because strikes now reach ships in the Gulf of Oman and off Qatar.
- What it limits constraint Escorted transits lifted September volumes on the coastal route Iran calls unauthorised, so adding more of them does not settle the dispute over that route.
- Who has to decide decision A buyer faces a choice this quarter. Paying early for cover or alternative supply costs money if the pattern fades; waiting leaves the exposure in place for next quarter if it holds.
The flow data put a size on the slowdown. Kpler's figure of 12.6 million barrels a day on 13 October is 2.4 million below the end-September reading, a fall of 16% [20]. The end-of-September reading was about 88% of the pre-war baseline of roughly 17 million barrels a day, and the 13 October reading is about 74% of it, a shortfall of 4.4 million barrels a day [22][21]. One figure is a single day and the other an end-of-month report, so the 16% sizes the dip only roughly [6][7].
The attack count is a short series with soft edges. Twelve is two more than the previous week's ten, a rise of 20% [19]. BBC Verify built its timeline from the first date cited in each UKMTO report, and it says the result is approximate because some reports use the date of the attack and others the date it was reported [5].
Most of the recent flow depends on a shuttle system. Tankers from the Gulf Arab states load, sail through the strait and transfer cargo to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman [12]. They hug Oman's coastline, and Iran calls that route "unauthorised" and insists vessels take one closer to its own shore [13]. The IRGC used the same word about the GFS Pride, saying the ship carried "2,500 containers of contraband" and had taken an "unauthorised route" [27].
Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, said Iran has "evolved its strategy" in response to the loosening of its control over the strait and has carried out "near daily or multiple attacks every single day" [23]. Kelly added: "The aim here is to stop the ships going through and to deter others." [24] He told BBC Verify that Iran's attacks now extend to vessels off the coastline of the Gulf Arab states and out in the Gulf of Oman [16]. On Thursday 8 October, multiple projectiles hit a tanker north of Qatar, over 500km away from the strait [11]. The IRGC navy has said its strikes would not be "limited to the Strait of Hormuz" and later announced a "new deployment formation", according to state media [17].
A skeptic would point to US Central Command, which posted that "commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with co-ordinated protection from US forces and regional partners" [25]. That statement and the Kpler data can both be right. We think the Central Command line describes continuity and the Kpler figure describes volume, and a cost forecast depends on the second [6][7].
The evidence is thinner on cause. BBC News links the slowdown to the strikes by timing: industry data suggests the recovery seen last month has slowed as the number of strikes has risen [18]. The report does not include freight or insurance prices. The September recovery did not include Iranian exports, which have completely stalled under the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships [15].
What to watch
- Whether the UKMTO weekly count for 12-18 October stays at or above the previous week's 10, after four reports in its first days.
- Whether Kpler's strait flow recovers toward the 15 million barrels a day of late September or slips further from 12.6 million.
- Whether the IRGC navy's announced new deployment formation produces more strikes far from the strait, and whether US-assisted transits keep rising.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
BBC Verify analysis of data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency shows the number of ships reporting attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz has hit a record high.
- [2]
Twelve vessels were attacked between 5 and 11 October, the largest number of weekly strikes reported to UKMTO since the US-Israeli war with Iran began.
- [3]
The previous week saw 10 ships reporting attacks.
- [4]
Six of the vessels were struck on the Sunday, according to UKMTO, a one-day high; so far in the following week there have been four reported attacks.
- [5]
BBC Verify collated UKMTO incident reports and built a timeline on the first date cited in each report; it is approximate because some incidents use the date of the attack and some the date on which it was reported.
- [6]
About 12.6 million barrels per day went through the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October, according to Kpler.
- [7]
Kpler data show 15 million barrels per day were reported going through the strait at the end of September.
- [8]
The pre-war baseline for flows through the strait was some 17 million barrels per day.
- [9]
US Navy data indicates the number of vessels given assistance to navigate the Strait of Hormuz during the first 10 days of October was up 85% compared with the same period in August.
- [10]
The Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin was struck by a drone close to the Sohar Anchorage, Oman, more than 250km from the strait, according to maritime intelligence firm Vanguard.
- [11]
A tanker was struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar on Thursday 8 October, more than 500km from the strait.
- [12]
Most of the oil shipped from Gulf Arab states recently has been carried using a shuttle system in which tankers load up and sail through the strait before transferring cargo to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
- [13]
Shuttle ships use a route close to Oman's coastline; Iran says this is unauthorised and insists vessels take an alternative route closer to its own shore.
- [14]
Assisted transits were a key factor in helping drive oil flows from the Middle East back towards pre-war levels in September.
- [15]
The September recovery does not include Iranian exports, which have completely stalled as a result of the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
- [16]
Martin Kelly told BBC Verify that Iran is widening its attacks and targeting ships near the coast of Gulf Arab states and in the Gulf of Oman.
- [17]
The IRGC navy has said strikes would not be "limited to the Strait of Hormuz" and later announced a "new deployment formation" across the region, according to state media.
- [18]
As the number of strikes has risen, the recovery in oil shipments through the strait seen last month has slowed, industry data suggests.
- [19]
Twelve weekly attacks is two more than the previous week's ten, a rise of 20%.
- [20]
Flow through the strait on 13 October was 2.4 million barrels per day, or 16%, below the end-of-September figure.
- [21]
The 13 October flow was about 74% of the pre-war baseline, a shortfall of 4.4 million barrels per day.
- [22]
The end-of-September flow of 15 million barrels per day was about 88% of the 17 million pre-war baseline.
- [23]
Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, said Iran has "evolved its strategy" in response to the loosening of its control over the strait and has been carrying out "near daily or multiple attacks every single day".
- [24]
"The aim here is to stop the ships going through and to deter others," Kelly added.
- [25]
US Central Command posted on social media that despite the attacks "commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with co-ordinated protection from US forces and regional partners".
- [26]
The container ship GFS Pride sank after a strike by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday; 21 crew were safely evacuated.
- [27]
The IRGC published footage of what appeared to be the same ship sinking and said the vessel was carrying "2,500 containers of contraband" and had taken an "unauthorised route".
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- bbc.co.ukShip attack reports near Hormuz reach record high as oil exports slow
1 article · October 15, 2026
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Topics
- Maritime SecurityFollow
- Oil flows and exportsFollow
- Strait of Hormuz Shipping RiskFollow
Entities
- BBC VerifyFollow
- Orbital Risk IntelligenceFollow
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard CorpsFollow
- KplerFollow
- UK Maritime Trade OperationsFollow
- US Central CommandFollow
- VanguardFollow