other
UK Royal Navy-run body that monitors shipping security and relays threat warnings to merchant vessels in the Gulf, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
The US is now threatening the state brokering a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran keeps the passage shut pending sanctions relief. Reopening is not a base case.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
Washington said it would trade strikes for sanctions. Days later it went back to shooting. For anyone pricing a Gulf voyage, mine risk in the strait was paused last week, not eliminated, and the freight and insurance numbers will keep saying so.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishersReality
UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a vessel alight after a projectile strike in the Strait of Hormuz. The tradeable version of that news is a contract on no ships transiting the strait by the end of September.
Reality
A projectile hit a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on September 12-13, according to a UKMTO advisory, and on the worst days since the conflict began the corridor has carried two million barrels instead of twenty. Brent is above $100.
Reality
Pezeshkian, speaking days after the weekend's exchange of fire, says Iran will reciprocate immediately if Washington returns to the June memorandum. Restoring it means restarting a 60-day clock that has already run out.
Reality
Traders put 7 to 8 million barrels a day back through the Strait while US reserve draws fell about 40 percent, which leaves heavy Canadian feedstock, not Gulf crude volume, as the number that sets American diesel costs.
Reality
A single report puts five ships hit by Iranian projectiles in seven days. The repricing is happening on insurance and routing desks, and not yet in Brent.
Reality
Four dated IRGC episodes since April, a collapsed US-Iran safe-passage memorandum, and fresh fire toward the strait argue for a standing premium rather than a series of one-off scares.
Reality
A draft Iranian law would charge 7% of cargo value to transit the strait and fine refusers 20%. That makes it an insurance and charter-contract problem before it is a military one.
Reality