Census Bureau working paper finds new graduates in AI-exposed majors earned 13% less at first
Graduates in the most AI-exposed fields were 5 points less likely to be employed the quarter after graduating, a Census Bureau paper finds. The figures cover only that first quarter, so they speak to this quarter's entry-level market and little beyond it.
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Graduates in the highest-exposure fields were 5 percentage points less likely to be employed in the quarter after graduation and had 13% lower initial full-quarter earnings. Business Insider names nine fields among the most exposed, five outside the computer-focused group.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less likely to be employed the quarter after graduation | 5 points | 5 | |
| Initial full-quarter earnings | 13% lower | graduates in highest-exposure fields | 6 |
| Fields Business Insider names among most exposed | 9 fields | five outside the computer-focused group | 11 |
What happened
- The paper rates exposure by asking whether GPT-4 could substantially cut the time needed for tasks in the jobs that graduates in each field typically enter.
- Teaching, medical assisting and nutrition are among the least exposed fields in the paper.
- The comparison group is graduates in less-exposed fields, measured after ChatGPT became widely available in 2022.
- Business Insider built a ranking of the 25 least-exposed career paths from the paper's three lowest-exposure deciles, merging closely related specialties.
Why it matters
- What it limits constraint Business Insider says the measure reflects only GPT-4's ability to speed up job tasks, so it cannot size what other tools do to the same entry-level roles.
- Who's exposed exposure A plan that treats AI exposure as an engineering-team issue misses five of the nine fields Business Insider names, including actuarial science and journalism.
- Who has to decide decision Trimming entry-level intake in an exposed field saves salary this quarter and leaves fewer people trained in-house later, and a first-quarter gap cannot settle that trade.
Because the score sits on jobs and is assigned back to majors, a graduate in an exposed field who takes an unusual job inherits the field's rating anyway [2]. In our view, an employer reading the result is looking at an average across a field's usual destinations, and its own roles may sit anywhere in that spread.
The exposed group is wider than software. Beyond the computer fields, Business Insider lists statistics, applied mathematics, electrical engineering, actuarial science and journalism among the highest-exposure fields [4]. Business Insider presents these as examples, so the full list may run longer.
Both outcomes are measured at the start of a career: employment in the quarter after graduation [5] and initial full-quarter earnings [6]. Business Insider's summary does not say whether the gap existed before 2022, whether it persists past the first quarter, or what else the researchers controlled for. That leaves AI exposure tangled with other differences between majors. A lower employment rate fits employers wanting fewer entry-level hires. It fits just as well with more graduates chasing the same openings.
The sequencing matters for anyone setting a hiring plan. A team that acts on a first-quarter gap this quarter will not learn whether the gap lasted until a later cohort has already been hired or passed over. The evidence on the table is a September working paper by Census Bureau researchers [1]. It is one paper, and the figures here come through Business Insider's analysis of it.
What to watch
- Whether the Census Bureau researchers report outcomes beyond the first quarter, which would show if the gap persists.
- Whether the paper or a follow-up compares exposed fields before and after 2022, which would bear on whether AI explains the gap.
- Whether later versions score exposure with tools beyond GPT-4.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
A September working paper by US Census Bureau researchers estimates the extent to which different fields of study are exposed to AI; Business Insider analyzed its data.
- [2]
The paper evaluates exposure by assessing whether GPT-4 could substantially reduce the time required to complete tasks in jobs that young graduates in each field typically enter.
- [3]
Some of the most exposed fields, according to the working paper, include computer-focused fields such as computer science, computer engineering, and computer programming, as well as information sciences.
- [4]
Statistics, applied mathematics, electrical engineering, actuarial science, and journalism also ranked among the highest-exposure fields.
- [5]
Graduates in the highest-exposure fields were 5 percentage points less likely to be employed in the quarter after graduation.
- [6]
Graduates in the highest-exposure fields had 13% lower initial full-quarter earnings.
- [7]
The employment and earnings gaps are measured against graduates in less-exposed fields, after ChatGPT became widely available in 2022.
- [8]
Fields like teaching, medical assisting, and nutrition were found to be among the least exposed to AI.
- [9]
For its ranking, Business Insider looked at the fields in the paper's three lowest-exposure deciles and combined closely related specialties to rank the 25 least-exposed general career paths.
- [10]
Business Insider says the ranking isn't definitive, and that the study reflects only GPT-4's ability to speed up job tasks.
- [11]
Of the nine fields Business Insider names among the most exposed, five (statistics, applied mathematics, electrical engineering, actuarial science, journalism) fall outside the computer-focused group.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- businessinsider.comThe 25 college majors that may be safest from AI, ranked
1 article · October 15, 2026
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