Government disputes think tank's £23bn estimate of benefit spending on non-British nationals
Centre for Social Justice estimates the UK spent about £23bn on benefits and pensions for non-British nationals in 2025, rising to almost £27bn by 2030. The government says it does not recognise the figures because they appear to rest on small-sample survey data.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Key figures from the Centre for Social Justice: approximately £14.3bn on working-age benefits, out of a total of about £23bn on benefits, pensions and child-related support for non-British nationals in 2025. About 1.85m non-British nationals got at least one form of welfare support last year.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Working-age benefits, per CSJ, approximately | £14.3bn | 14 | |
| CSJ total, 2025, about | £23bn | 13 | |
| Non-British nationals on welfare last year, about | 1.85 million people | per CSJ; at least one form of support | 16 |
What happened
- The CSJ says it worked from data supplied by the DWP, HMRC and the Home Office, and counts about 1.85m non-British nationals receiving at least one form of welfare support last year.
- An estimated 400,000 foreign nationals also received the state pension, a number the coverage says is projected to rise over the next few years.
- The government spokesperson added that net migration is down 82 per cent from its 2023 peak, only people with eligible status can claim, and about half of Universal Credit claimants are in work.
- Most people on visas have no recourse to public funds, and access to the welfare system can follow once they secure settled status, also called indefinite leave to remain.
Why it matters
- contradiction The two sides disagree about the nature of the inputs themselves, so the argument cannot be settled by debating the policy conclusions each draws from the number.
- decision The government is contesting the estimate while advancing its plan to double the standard qualifying period to 10 years, so the dispute over the figure does not change the policy it has already proposed.
- exposure With the Tory and Reform leaders already pledged to go further on benefits for foreign nationals, the CSJ figure gives their argument a number to cite whether or not the government accepts it.
Most of the argument rests on the 2025 base. The CSJ puts working-age benefits at about £14.3bn of a total of about £23bn [13][14]. That leaves about £8.7bn for pensions and child-related support, the two other categories it names [11]. The projection to almost £27bn by 2030 adds close to £4bn, or about 17%, over five years [15][12]. A count of last year's spending and a five-year projection are different kinds of claim, and the coverage of the report does not describe how the later figure was built or give the government's own count.
The CSJ's wording is narrower than its founder's. The think tank said the rise in benefit claims had "accompanied the unprecedented rise in immigration seen in recent years" [5]. That describes timing. Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader who founded the CSJ, said many would be "deeply concerned at the extent to which governments have let unconstrained immigration drive up the welfare bill" [6][7].
The government's objection is specific. A spokesperson said the figures "appear to be based on small-sample survey data, which is not robust enough to produce reliable estimates" [2]. The wording is hedged: "appear to be based on" is an inference about the CSJ's method. The CSJ describes its inputs as data from government departments [16]. If the estimate is built from sample surveys, the objection has force. If it is built from departmental records, it has less. We do not know which, and until the CSJ's tables can be examined we would hold the £23bn as a claim to be tested, not a count.
The government can dispute the estimate on method without endorsing it, and the cost is that the CSJ's figure goes on being argued over. Home secretary Shabana Mahmood's stricter settlement rules have already drawn backlash within Labour ranks [9]. City AM reported that Andy Burnham said at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday that he would "get the welfare bill down", although reforms may only come after the Budget [10].
What to watch
- Whether the CSJ publishes the method and tables behind its 1.85m count, which would show if the inputs are survey samples or departmental records.
- Whether the government or another body publishes its own estimate of welfare and pension spending by nationality.
- Whether welfare reforms arrive after the Budget and how they treat the proposed 10-year qualifying period for most migrants.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Government officials said they did not recognise the CSJ's estimates due to its use of samples.
- [2]
A government spokesperson said: "We do not recognise these figures, which appear to be based on small-sample survey data, which is not robust enough to produce reliable estimates."
- [3]
The government spokesperson said net migration is down 82 per cent from its 2023 peak, that only people with eligible immigration status can claim taxpayer-funded benefits, and that around half of those claiming Universal Credit are in work.
- [4]
The government spokesperson said it has set out proposals to double the standard qualifying period to 10 years for most migrants, with shorter routes for those who contribute most to the UK.
- [5]
The CSJ said the rise in benefits claims had "accompanied the unprecedented rise in immigration seen in recent years".
- [6]
Duncan Smith is the former Tory leader who founded the CSJ.
- [7]
Duncan Smith said: "At a time when families and businesses are being clobbered with yet more taxes, many will be deeply concerned at the extent to which governments have let unconstrained immigration drive up the welfare bill."
- [8]
While most people on visas do not have recourse to public funds, access to the welfare system can be granted after migrants secure settled status, otherwise known as indefinite leave to remain.
- [9]
Home secretary Shabana Mahmood's stricter settlement rules have led to backlash within Labour ranks, although both Tory and Reform leaders have pledged to go further in denying some foreign nationals from claiming benefits.
- [10]
At Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, Andy Burnham said he would "get the welfare bill down", although reforms may only come after the Budget.
- [11]
About £8.7bn of the total is not working-age benefits, which leaves it for pensions and child-related support.
- [12]
The projected rise from about £23bn in 2025 to almost £27bn in 2030 is close to £4bn, or about 17%, over five years.
- [13]
The Centre for Social Justice estimated that the UK government spent about £23bn on benefits, pensions and child-related support for non-British nationals in 2025.
- [14]
Research found that approximately £14.3bn of the spending was for working-age benefits.
- [15]
The total bill could rise to almost £27bn by 2030, according to estimates.
- [16]
Researchers used data provided by the Department for Work and Pensions, HMRC and the Home Office and suggested that about 1.85m non-British nationals received at least one form of welfare support last year.
- [17]
An estimated 400,000 foreign nationals also received the state pension, a number that is projected to rise over the next few years.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cityam.comBenefits and pensions for foreign nationals ‘cost £23bn’
1 article · October 14, 2026
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