GM's single hybrid leaves it short of a fuel-price surge that lifted hybrids to 19% of US sales

Detroit reacted to the first of two shocks and was caught by the second. Expiry of the federal credits, worth up to $7,500 on a new EV and $4,000 on a used one, pulled EV sales down 23% in the second quarter, according to Cox Automotive ^[5][6]. Cox projects a 45% drop for the third quarter, though the rush to buy before the Sept. 30, 2025 deadline likely distorts that comparison ^[7]. Detroit's answer was a production plan built on high-margin pickups and SUVs ^[9]. Then the US-Iran war began in February, pump signs read $4.36 a gallon, and buyers asked dealers for hybrids ^[10][2]. The three-point gain in hybrid share is a rise of nearly a fifth ^[21].

The gain went to the companies that kept their hybrid lineups through the EV retreat ^[3]. Honda sold a record 106,000 hybrids on 21% growth ^[14]. Working backward, its year-ago quarter was about 87,600, so Honda alone added roughly 18,400 hybrids in three months ^[19]. Hyundai's record total was about 7,200 vehicles above a year earlier ^[20], and The Daily Upside attributes most of that growth to its hybrids ^[11]. Kia, which Cox ranks as the fastest-growing hybrid seller, lifted hybrid sales 152%, and Hyundai owns 35% of Kia ^[12]. Multiply Cox's estimate of Toyota's share of the hybrid market by JD Power's hybrid share of all sales and about 8 of every 100 new vehicles sold in the US are Toyota hybrids ^[22] (two firms and two periods, so take it as a rough size).

If the war ends and gasoline falls, hybrid share could slide back toward its pre-war level, and the truck plan would look right. A GM hybrid on the 2027 schedule ^[16] would then arrive after the buyers have gone. If gasoline stays high, GM walks into a market Toyota already leads, and Ford's small hybrid is not due until 2029 ^[18]. A third outcome turns on margin. GM's 6% decline ^[15] is a unit count, or rather the only GM number in this reporting, and a company selling fewer pickups at high margins can still earn more. The reporting does not include GM's profit.

I think GM loses this round of hybrid buyers whichever way gasoline goes, because the earliest date it has given is 2027 and the buyers are at dealers now ^[16]. Anderson told CNBC that GM is working to catch up "as quickly as we can" ^[4]. He also said the company is "not tone deaf to our customers" ^[17]. That loss is small, and this view wrong, if hybrid share falls back toward 16% before GM has a second hybrid in showrooms, or if GM's truck margins turn a 6% volume decline into higher profit.