Firmus withdraws its ASX listing days after opening the book to investors

The two accounts of the deal do not agree on its size, so the size has to be settled before a lesson is drawn from it. Forbes Australia reported shares offered at $11 to raise about $7 billion at a market value of roughly $44 billion ^[16], although a later passage in the same article says $8 billion ^[18]. Benzinga reported a raise of nearly $5 billion at a valuation above $30 billion ^[17]. Benzinga's figures come to about 0.7 of Forbes's on both measures ^[19]. That is the size of a currency conversion, but we cannot tell from the excerpts whether either outlet converted anything.

The record on why the book failed is thin and partly contradictory. Forbes reported that interest was insufficient, that the company weighed a lower share price, and that it pulled the listing instead ^[6]. The board said the terms on which the offer could proceed would not reflect the strength of the business, and cited market volatility ^[2]. Jun Bei Liu of Ten Cap framed it as a loss of nerve among buyers. "Confidence evaporated," Liu said ^[9]. Liu added: "It needs to be a bit more mature." ^[10]

A skeptic would say the withdrawal confirms what the revenue already implied. Forbes noted that Firmus had modest revenue and limited operating experience, and wrote that the sceptics were right, at least for the moment ^[14]. In our view one pulled book cannot carry that conclusion for AI-infrastructure valuations in general. It is one offer at one price, and the board's explanation and the investors' explanation both fit it. What the record does show is how far the price had travelled: $44 billion is about 24 times the $1.85 billion Firmus was valued at in September last year ^[15][7].

Existing backers have not turned on the company. Oscar Oberg of Wilson Asset Management, which invested in Firmus last September, conceded disappointment but said the long-term prospects remain strong ^[12]. "We back the management team to deliver because they have so far," Oberg said ^[11].

On funding, Forbes expects the new money to come from existing investors such as Nvidia ^[20]. The company's statement is wider and leaves public options open ^[13]. Nvidia has been a partner since around 2021 and co-designed the HyperCube platform Firmus uses ^[3], so it is a plausible source of capital, but that is Forbes's expectation and not a commitment from Nvidia. We would expect the price Firmus accepts in a private round this quarter to become the mark its existing investors carry into next quarter.