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Coinbase wants Bitcoin's quantum-resistant wallets designed now because migration takes years

Coinbase, which says it custodies about 5% of all bitcoin, warned on October 13 that a quantum-resistant upgrade could take years. It backs BIP-360, P2TRv2 and hybrid wallets now and wants dormant and lost coins settled separately.

The Investor · Invest desk

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What happened

  • Coinbase cited P2MR (BIP-360) and P2TRv2 as output designs that separate the container from the signature scheme, so post-quantum systems can be added or swapped without a redesign.
  • For active wallets it would support a hybrid 1-of-2 construction, one spending path under a classical ECDSA or Schnorr key and one under a post-quantum key, before legacy signature policy is final.
  • BIP-360 is still a draft, and its own specification says it does not introduce a post-quantum signature algorithm or stop every quantum attack.
  • Coinbase said any proposal to recover or protect legacy funds should itself be post-quantum safe and must handle coins with no recoverable secret or a lapsed migration deadline.

Why it matters

  • constraint Coinbase's checklist includes signature size, verification time and Bitcoin's limited block space. Whichever scheme wins, its size cost lands in fees and network capacity.
  • decision Coinbase asks developers to define transition modes first. Wallet formats would then be drafted while the question of ending classical spending is still open.
  • exposure Coinbase lists permanently exposed and reused public keys alongside covert quantum theft. Idle coins on those outputs are the ones a first attacker could take without announcing it.

Coinbase says it holds about 5% of all existing BTC in custody [11], or one coin in every twenty [26], and the coverage does not say how that figure is measured. The paper does not claim that a machine able to break Bitcoin's signatures exists, or that the protections have been broken [13]. The case therefore rests on lead time. Consensus changes and wallet migrations often take years [1], so Coinbase encouraged developers to start before researchers demonstrate such a machine [8]. It has begun on its own custody systems through talks with Bitcoin researchers, open-source engineering contributions and the Bitcoin Security Consortium [14].

In our view the years in that estimate run through three stages: a container, a signature scheme and then wallet migration. Only the first has a proposal on the table [12]. Scheme selection is open. Coinbase asks for a Bitcoin-specific evaluation, with ML-DSA and SLH-DSA as finalized candidates, FN-DSA once it is standardized, and the compact SHRINCS [16]. It is wary of stateful schemes: they can be smaller and faster, but they are error-prone to manage and can allow forgery if state is reused. It wants a stateless option alongside any it supports [15]. Other chains have reached test networks. Sui recorded a first native quantum-safe transaction on Devnet on October 13, and TRON's Justin Sun said on October 10 that post-quantum cryptography was live on its testnet [17].

Hybrid wallets are where the separate-question framing gets tested. In a 1-of-2 construction either path can authorize a spend, so the classical key stays usable until classical spending is limited or ended [25]. Coinbase lists limiting or ending it among options to evaluate without choosing one [20]. Dormant coins can wait for Bitcoin's governance process; Coinbase's independent advisory board left decisions about inaccessible or abandoned funds there [5]. Policy on legacy signatures is harder to leave, because it decides whether a hybrid wallet protects anything beyond a commitment that hides its public key.

The counter is Coinbase's own argument that a migration should not depend on resolving every dispute over older coins [21]. Hiding keys also counts for something. P2MR drops Taproot's key-path spending option, which exposes a public key [18], and its specification aims at long-exposure attacks [23]. That would protect coins sitting idle behind a hidden key even with classical spending open. In our view it is the stronger half of Coinbase's case.

Two other outcomes would change this. A quantum computer could arrive before any container ships; Coinbase's early start is its hedge against that. Or developers could choose a container other than BIP-360 or P2TRv2, which Coinbase offers as contributions to an ongoing process and not as a final decision [24].

What to watch

  • BIP-360 leaving draft status, or a different output container drawing developer support.
  • The Bitcoin-specific signature evaluation settling on a scheme from ML-DSA, SLH-DSA, FN-DSA or SHRINCS.
  • Any developer proposal to limit or end classical signature spending, which would decide whether 1-of-2 wallets protect funds.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption8
Hype gap−10
Incentives50
Confidence65
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Claim ledger

Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.

  1. [1]

    In an October 13 technical paper, Coinbase warned that upgrading Bitcoin's security could take several years, and that consensus changes and wallet migrations often require years of planning and coordination.

    Reported Supported Source: crypto.news, reporting Coinbase's October 13 technical paper2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source
  2. [2]

    Coinbase favored designs that separate the output 'container' from the signature scheme, so one or more post-quantum systems can be introduced or replaced without a complete redesign, and cited P2MR (BIP-360) and P2TRv2 as constructions that appear to offer such flexibility.

    Reported Supported Source: cryptotimes.io, reporting Coinbase's October 13 blog post2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source
  3. [3]

    Coinbase said it would support a staged protection in which active wallets could use a post-quantum-capable or hybrid construction before a final policy on legacy signatures is settled, for example a 1-of-2 construction with two alternative spending paths for the same funds, one authorized by a classical ECDSA or Schnorr key and one by a post-quantum key.

    Reported Supported Source: cryptotimes.io, reporting Coinbase's October 13 blog post2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source

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Sources

3 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. coindesk.com

    1 article · October 13, 2026

    Coinbase, which holds 5% of all bitcoin, wants the quantum fix started now
  2. crypto.news

    1 article · October 13, 2026

    Coinbase proposes ways to protect Bitcoin from quantum risks
  3. cryptotimes.io

    1 article · October 13, 2026

    Coinbase Outlines Bitcoin Security Priorities for Post-Quantum Era

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