Coinbase wants Bitcoin's quantum-resistant wallets designed now because migration takes years
Coinbase, which says it custodies about 5% of all bitcoin, warned on October 13 that a quantum-resistant upgrade could take years. It backs BIP-360, P2TRv2 and hybrid wallets now and wants dormant and lost coins settled separately.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Coinbase cited P2MR (BIP-360) and P2TRv2 as output designs that separate the container from the signature scheme, so post-quantum systems can be added or swapped without a redesign.
- For active wallets it would support a hybrid 1-of-2 construction, one spending path under a classical ECDSA or Schnorr key and one under a post-quantum key, before legacy signature policy is final.
- BIP-360 is still a draft, and its own specification says it does not introduce a post-quantum signature algorithm or stop every quantum attack.
- Coinbase said any proposal to recover or protect legacy funds should itself be post-quantum safe and must handle coins with no recoverable secret or a lapsed migration deadline.
Why it matters
- constraint Coinbase's checklist includes signature size, verification time and Bitcoin's limited block space. Whichever scheme wins, its size cost lands in fees and network capacity.
- decision Coinbase asks developers to define transition modes first. Wallet formats would then be drafted while the question of ending classical spending is still open.
- exposure Coinbase lists permanently exposed and reused public keys alongside covert quantum theft. Idle coins on those outputs are the ones a first attacker could take without announcing it.
Coinbase says it holds about 5% of all existing BTC in custody [11], or one coin in every twenty [26], and the coverage does not say how that figure is measured. The paper does not claim that a machine able to break Bitcoin's signatures exists, or that the protections have been broken [13]. The case therefore rests on lead time. Consensus changes and wallet migrations often take years [1], so Coinbase encouraged developers to start before researchers demonstrate such a machine [8]. It has begun on its own custody systems through talks with Bitcoin researchers, open-source engineering contributions and the Bitcoin Security Consortium [14].
In our view the years in that estimate run through three stages: a container, a signature scheme and then wallet migration. Only the first has a proposal on the table [12]. Scheme selection is open. Coinbase asks for a Bitcoin-specific evaluation, with ML-DSA and SLH-DSA as finalized candidates, FN-DSA once it is standardized, and the compact SHRINCS [16]. It is wary of stateful schemes: they can be smaller and faster, but they are error-prone to manage and can allow forgery if state is reused. It wants a stateless option alongside any it supports [15]. Other chains have reached test networks. Sui recorded a first native quantum-safe transaction on Devnet on October 13, and TRON's Justin Sun said on October 10 that post-quantum cryptography was live on its testnet [17].
Hybrid wallets are where the separate-question framing gets tested. In a 1-of-2 construction either path can authorize a spend, so the classical key stays usable until classical spending is limited or ended [25]. Coinbase lists limiting or ending it among options to evaluate without choosing one [20]. Dormant coins can wait for Bitcoin's governance process; Coinbase's independent advisory board left decisions about inaccessible or abandoned funds there [5]. Policy on legacy signatures is harder to leave, because it decides whether a hybrid wallet protects anything beyond a commitment that hides its public key.
The counter is Coinbase's own argument that a migration should not depend on resolving every dispute over older coins [21]. Hiding keys also counts for something. P2MR drops Taproot's key-path spending option, which exposes a public key [18], and its specification aims at long-exposure attacks [23]. That would protect coins sitting idle behind a hidden key even with classical spending open. In our view it is the stronger half of Coinbase's case.
Two other outcomes would change this. A quantum computer could arrive before any container ships; Coinbase's early start is its hedge against that. Or developers could choose a container other than BIP-360 or P2TRv2, which Coinbase offers as contributions to an ongoing process and not as a final decision [24].
What to watch
- BIP-360 leaving draft status, or a different output container drawing developer support.
- The Bitcoin-specific signature evaluation settling on a scheme from ML-DSA, SLH-DSA, FN-DSA or SHRINCS.
- Any developer proposal to limit or end classical signature spending, which would decide whether 1-of-2 wallets protect funds.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption8
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives50
- Confidence65
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
In an October 13 technical paper, Coinbase warned that upgrading Bitcoin's security could take several years, and that consensus changes and wallet migrations often require years of planning and coordination.
- [2]
Coinbase favored designs that separate the output 'container' from the signature scheme, so one or more post-quantum systems can be introduced or replaced without a complete redesign, and cited P2MR (BIP-360) and P2TRv2 as constructions that appear to offer such flexibility.
- [3]
Coinbase said it would support a staged protection in which active wallets could use a post-quantum-capable or hybrid construction before a final policy on legacy signatures is settled, for example a 1-of-2 construction with two alternative spending paths for the same funds, one authorized by a classical ECDSA or Schnorr key and one by a post-quantum key.
- [4]
Coinbase treated dormant, lost and exposed funds as a separate governance and engineering issue.
- [5]
Coinbase's independent advisory board supported developing protective technologies while leaving decisions about inaccessible or abandoned funds to Bitcoin's governance process.
- [6]
Developers must consider transaction fees, network capacity, wallet compatibility and the ability of Bitcoin nodes to verify transactions independently.
- [7]
Coinbase said a comprehensive transition strategy should fit within Bitcoin's limited block space and preserve independent validation by full nodes, and highlighted the need for consensus limits on witness and script sizes.
- [8]
Coinbase encouraged developers to begin preparing before researchers demonstrate a quantum computer powerful enough to break Bitcoin's existing cryptographic signatures.
- [9]
Coinbase said any proposal to recover or protect legacy funds should itself be post-quantum safe, and would need to address cases in which no recoverable secret exists or a migration deadline expires.
- [10]
Considerations Coinbase mentioned for legacy funds included outputs with permanently exposed public keys, reused keys, dormant but controlled funds, lost keys, concentrated holdings, and the possibility of covert quantum theft.
- [11]
Coinbase says it holds approximately 5% of all existing BTC in custody.
- [12]
The official BIP-360 specification does not independently introduce a post-quantum signature algorithm or prevent every possible quantum attack, and the proposal remains in draft status.
- [13]
The proposal does not claim that a quantum machine able to break Bitcoin's signatures currently exists or that Bitcoin's cryptographic protections have been broken; Coinbase described the threat as a future possibility.
- [14]
Coinbase has begun preparing its own custody systems for post-quantum security, including discussions with Bitcoin researchers, engineering contributions to open-source projects and participation in the Bitcoin Security Consortium.
- [15]
Coinbase expressed caution about stateful post-quantum signature schemes: they can be smaller and faster, but managing state is error-prone and could lead to forgery if state is reused. It recommended that any support for stateful signatures also include a stateless option.
- [16]
Coinbase called for a Bitcoin-specific signature-scheme evaluation process, with candidates including finalized standards ML-DSA and SLH-DSA, FN-DSA when standardized, and compact alternatives such as SHRINCS.
- [17]
On October 13, Mysten Labs co-founder Kostas Chalkias announced Sui's first native quantum-safe transaction on Devnet; on October 10, TRON founder Justin Sun said post-quantum cryptography was live on the network's testnet.
- [18]
BIP-360 introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), derived from Taproot, and removes Taproot's key-path spending option, which exposes a public key that could become vulnerable to a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
- [19]
Coinbase's evaluation criteria for signature schemes included signature and key sizes, verification time, side-channel resistance, key-generation and signing performance, hardware and MPC feasibility, security assumptions and compatibility with hybrid transitions.
- [20]
Transition options Coinbase listed for evaluation included post-quantum-only outputs, hybrid 1-of-2 constructions, commit/reveal mechanisms, staged policies for new and legacy outputs, and various approaches to limiting or ending classical signature spending.
- [21]
Coinbase called for flexible transaction designs, stronger wallet protections and a migration process that does not depend on resolving every dispute over older coins.
- [22]
Coinbase said Bitcoin developers should define possible transition modes before deciding on a final policy for legacy signatures.
- [23]
The official BIP-360 specification describes P2MR as a proposed soft-fork change intended to protect against long-exposure attacks involving public keys.
- [24]
Coinbase emphasized that its recommendations remain contributions to an ongoing development process, not a final decision on Bitcoin's future security design.
- [25]
In a 1-of-2 construction either spending path can authorize a spend, so the classical ECDSA or Schnorr path stays usable until classical spending is limited or ended.
- [26]
5% of all existing BTC is one coin in every twenty.
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Sources
3 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- coindesk.comCoinbase, which holds 5% of all bitcoin, wants the quantum fix started now
1 article · October 13, 2026
- crypto.newsCoinbase proposes ways to protect Bitcoin from quantum risks
1 article · October 13, 2026
- cryptotimes.ioCoinbase Outlines Bitcoin Security Priorities for Post-Quantum Era
1 article · October 13, 2026
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