Citrini Research skips Bitcoin in a crypto basket built on AI agents moving money

Cryptopolitan, which reported the basket, wrote that the reason for leaving Bitcoin out "is more interesting than another argument about whether the world's largest cryptocurrency is overpriced" ^[12]. Citrini's case is about flow. If AI changes how money moves, the exposure belongs with the companies that process the transactions ^[4]. A coin sitting in a wallet earns nothing when an agent moves a customer's savings from one bank to another. The venue or chain that clears the transfer does.

"Our financial system was not designed for this future," Citrini wrote. "It's slow, fragmented and gate-kept by layers of intermediaries, legal authorities and KYC processes. It was built by humans, for humans." ^[6] The firm believes that future is getting closer and that banks are going to hate it ^[13].

I see three ways this plays out, and the basket wins in one of them. If new networks carry the agent money, the processors in the basket get the volume ^[7]. If incumbent banks adapt first, deposits still leave the laggards, but they land at other banks. The onchain names then keep the business they already had. If agents never move money at any real scale, the basket is a set of trading venues valued on a payments thesis that never showed up.

Citrini's case for the second outcome rests on history and on two recent products. Blockchains have been able to make payments with no closing time for about 15 years, and what they lacked was enough good reasons for people to use them ^[1]. "Both of those things are now changing. Financial assets are being tokenized and brought onchain. The worlds of traditional finance and crypto are merging," Citrini wrote ^[2]. The weekend oil futures on Hyperliquid and Robinhood's transferable stock tokens are the examples it gives ^{[8] [9]}.

The research began at retail size. "So I downloaded Coinbase Wallet, loaded up $1,000 and went where very few investors return from with a positive ROI: the onchain trenches," Citrini wrote ^[10]. Cryptopolitan's account does not give the basket's weights or say how much money tracks it.

I think leaving out Bitcoin is the consistent choice for a bet on transaction flow ^[4]. The counter-thesis is Citrini's own first outcome: banks adapt fast enough to keep agent money inside regulated accounts ^[7]. One part of the evidence is easy to test. Hyperliquid had its opening in March because regular exchanges were closed that weekend ^[8]. Every hour an incumbent exchange adds to its trading schedule shrinks that opening.