Cancer rates in under-50s rise across seven tumour types in England, WCRF analysis finds

The prostate figure is a large ratio on a small base. Under-50 incidence in England went from 1 to 3.6 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2023 ^[3], an increase of 2.6 cases per 100,000 ^[17]. Breast cancer in the same age group grew more slowly, from 42 to 47.5 per 100,000 ^[5]. That is a rise of about 13%, and it adds 5.5 cases per 100,000, roughly twice the prostate gain ^[18].

Cancer under 50 is still uncommon, and the authors noted that the median age at diagnosis is above 60 ^[6]. What the analysis reports is a small risk rising faster in younger people than at older ages ^[2]. The Guardian's account does not include the over-50 rates behind that comparison, so the size of the gap between age groups cannot be checked from it.

The finding I would trust most is the agreement between countries. In the US, under-50 kidney cancer went from 2.5 to 5.3 per 100,000 between 2000 and 2023 ^[7], a 2.1-fold rise ^[19] close to the doubling in England ^[4]. US bowel, uterine and pancreatic cancers each rose by more than 50%, and breast cancer by about 20% ^[7]. In the Netherlands the significant rises were in bowel, kidney, liver and cervical cancers ^[16].

Lung cancer is the nearest thing to a control in this data. Its under-50 rate fell in all three countries, and the researchers put that down to continuing declines in smoking ^[8]. The same registries, over the same years, recorded a known exposure falling and incidence falling with it. That shows the data can register a change in exposure, though registry trends alone cannot say which exposure sits behind the rises.

Cause is also tangled with detection. WCRF names obesity, poor diet, insufficient exercise, alcohol, smoking and environmental exposures such as pollutants and plastics as possible contributors ^[9]. It also says greater awareness of symptoms makes earlier diagnosis more likely ^[11]. An incidence rate counts diagnoses, so more detection and more disease raise it in the same way. "At the same time, the public are increasingly aware of the risk factors relating to cancer and the signs and symptoms of the disease to look out for, so are more likely to seek out healthcare when they experience them," said Vanessa Gordon-Dseagu, research translation manager at WCRF ^[12]. She added that "increased diagnosis does not explain the whole story and more research is needed to understand early-onset cancers" ^[13].

Giota Mitrou, WCRF's executive director of research and policy, said: "While cancer is still much more common in older adults, these changing patterns among younger generations need to be treated as a serious research and cancer prevention priority." ^[14]