LeadershipIndependently confirmed2 publishers3 min readPublished
Your First Home could add 10% to Bellway's volumes, its chief executive says
Bellway chief executive Jason Honeyman says Your First Home, a 20% equity loan on a 2.5% deposit, could slow the housing market until it launches. The Guardian reported he also sees a volume gain of around 10%, with full terms due in the 28 October budget.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Key figures: Honeyman says the scheme could drive Bellway's annual completions back to 10,000 homes, from next September at the earliest. Last year Bellway completed 9,695 homes. Its current-year target is 9,000 to 9,400 homes.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual completions the scheme could drive, per Honeyman | 10,000 homes | from next September at the earliest | 9 |
| Completions last year | 9,695 homes | 16 | |
| Current-year target, at least | 9,000 homes | up to 9,400 homes | 10 |
What happened
- Your First Home applies only to England and only to new-build flats and houses bought by first-time buyers.
- Honeyman said the scheme could drive Bellway's annual completions back to 10,000 homes, in the 12-month period from next September at the earliest.
- Its forward order book stands at 4,981 homes worth £1.4bn, against 5,285 homes worth £1.5bn a year earlier.
- Housebuilders' shares rose by more than 10% when Andy Burnham announced the scheme a fortnight ago.
Why it matters
- cost Bellway and the builders expected to benefit carry the cost of the wait: Honeyman expects some buyers to hold off until launch, and the launch date is still unannounced.
- constraint The scheme cannot help Bellway meet its current-year target, because the earliest window Honeyman cites starts next September.
- exposure Gains are uneven across listed builders: Persimmon, Gleeson, Taylor Wimpey and Bellway are expected to benefit, and Berkeley and Vistry are not.
Honeyman describes two effects on different clocks, and the first is a drag that begins before the scheme does. City AM quoted him telling shareholders on Tuesday: "While the Government's proposed Your First Home scheme has the potential to provide meaningful support for first-time buyer demand, the period ahead of its launch may influence the timing of purchasing decisions among some prospective customers." [8] Bellway enters that wait with 5.8% fewer homes in its forward order book than a year earlier [22].
The second effect is slower and conditional. "Based upon our past experience with help to buy, the new scheme has the potential to boost volumes by around 10%, and with a market recovery, provide a path back to at least 10,000 homes a year and a return on equity of 15%," Honeyman said, according to the Guardian [18]. If the 10% is measured against the current-year target, completions would land between 9,900 and 10,340 [23]. His 10,000 sits inside that range and is 3.1% above last year's 9,695 [24].
The 10% is an extrapolation from an earlier scheme, and the new one is narrower. Help to Buy was set up by George Osborne in 2013 and ended in 2022 [21]. The Guardian describes Your First Home as more targeted than previous help-to-buy initiatives [6], with household income caps and price caps [3].
A skeptic would point to supply. City AM reported that some economists have cautioned that supply-side issues caused by soaring building costs must still be addressed [20]. Bellway's numbers fit the concern: it cites construction costs running at 3% to 4% [11] and expects its average selling price to stay flat at about £325,000 [13]. The volume claim does not need prices to rise, because more qualified buyers at a flat price is enough. The 15% return on equity in the same sentence is the part that costs would test.
The two accounts of Bellway's year do not line up. The Guardian gave a year to 31 August, revenue of £3.16bn up 13%, and underlying profit before tax up 5.7% to £305.7m [25]. City AM gave a year to the end of July, revenue of £3.2bn up 14%, and pre-tax profit up 22% to £270m [26]. Both reports put completions for the latest year at 9,695 [c10, c23].
Honeyman said housebuilders are still waiting for "further detail on the scope, design and timing" of the scheme, City AM reported [5]. Bellway's shares rose 2% on Tuesday and are still down by more than a quarter this year [15]. In our view the launch date matters more than the 10% for the next two quarters: this quarter's budget sets how long buyers have a reason to wait, and we'd expect next quarter's order book to show how many did.
What to watch
- The 28 October budget: whether the launch date, and the income and price caps, leave buyers a long or short reason to wait.
- Bellway's next order book update against 4,981 homes worth £1.4bn, to show whether buyers are deferring purchases.
- Bellway's own results statement, which would settle the year-end and profit figures the Guardian and City AM report differently.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Your First Home applies only to England and is for prospective first-time buyers hoping to buy a new-build flat or house.
- [2]
Buyers will be offered a government-backed equity loan worth 20% of the purchase price and the minimum deposit will be 2.5%.
- [3]
The scheme features household income caps to exclude those with big salaries, and price caps to ensure people can only buy modest houses.
- [4]
Full details, including the launch date, are expected to be announced by John Healey in his first budget as chancellor on 28 October.
- [5]
Honeyman said housebuilders are still waiting for "further detail on the scope, design and timing" of Your First Home.
ReportedSupportedSource: City AM, reporting Honeyman3 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [6]
The new programme will be more targeted than previous help-to-buy initiatives.
- [7]
Honeyman said the scheme could weigh on the market in the near term, as some buyers will want to wait for the initiative to be launched.
ReportedSupportedSource: Jason Honeyman, as reported by the Guardian2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [8]
Honeyman told shareholders on Tuesday: "While the Government's proposed Your First Home scheme has the potential to provide meaningful support for first-time buyer demand, the period ahead of its launch may influence the timing of purchasing decisions among some prospective customers."
ReportedSupportedSource: Jason Honeyman, as reported by City AM2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [9]
Honeyman said the scheme could drive Bellway's annual completions back to 10,000 homes, in the 12-month period from next September at the earliest.
- [10]
Bellway is targeting between 9,000 and 9,400 homes in the current year, down from 9,695 last year.
- [11]
Bellway cites higher construction costs, running at between 3% and 4%, alongside a lower order book and ongoing pressures on customer demand.
- [12]
Bellway has a forward order book of 4,981 homes worth £1.4bn, compared with 5,285 homes with a value of £1.5bn a year earlier.
- [13]
Bellway expects the average selling price to be flat over the coming year at about £325,000.
- [14]
Andy Burnham's announcement of the Your First Home scheme a fortnight ago sent housebuilders' shares soaring by more than 10%.
- [15]
Bellway shares rose 2% on Tuesday but are still down by more than a quarter so far this year.
- [16]
Bellway's total housing completions grew by 11% to 9,695 homes.
- [17]
The Your First Home programme could increase the number of houses Bellway produces each year by 10%, its boss has said.
- [18]
"Based upon our past experience with help to buy, the new scheme has the potential to boost volumes by around 10%, and with a market recovery, provide a path back to at least 10,000 homes a year and a return on equity of 15%," Honeyman said.
ReportedSupportedSource: Jason Honeyman, Bellway chief executive, as reported by the GuardianView cited source - [19]
The scheme is expected to help most big housebuilders such as Persimmon, MJ Gleeson, Taylor Wimpey and Bellway, but Berkeley Group (London-focused) and Vistry Group (pivoted to affordable and social homes) are not expected to get much help.
- [20]
Some economists have cautioned that the supply-side issues caused by soaring building costs must still be addressed.
- [21]
The Help to Buy programme was set up by then-Chancellor George Osborne in 2013 but ended in 2022.
- [22]
Bellway's forward order book holds about 5.8% fewer homes than a year earlier.
- [23]
A 10% rise on the current-year target of 9,000 to 9,400 homes gives 9,900 to 10,340 homes.
- [24]
A figure of 10,000 completions is about 3.1% above last year's 9,695.
- [25]
For the year to 31 August, Bellway reported revenue of £3.16bn, up 13%, and underlying profits before tax up 5.7% to £305.7m.
- [26]
For the year to the end of July, Bellway's revenue rose 14% to £3.2bn and pre-tax profit rose 22% to £270m.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cityam.comBellway warns revived Help to Buy scheme could slow housing market
1 article · October 12, 2026
- theguardian.comBurnham’s Your First Home scheme ‘could boost Bellway’s house output by 10%’
1 article · October 13, 2026
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Topics
- UK housebuildingFollow
- First-time buyer schemesFollow
- UK housing marketFollow
Entities
- Andy BurnhamFollow
- Your First HomeFollow
- Vistry GroupFollow
- BellwayFollow
- John HealeyFollow
- Berkeley GroupFollow
- Help to BuyFollow
- Jason HoneymanFollow