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Advisor confidence in stocks slips to 115 as their view of the economy improves
Financial advisors' stock-market sentiment fell three points to 115 in September, 12% below May's record, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ index. Their economy reading rose four points to 106 over the same month, so the caution appears aimed more at what stocks cost than at the economy behind them.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Looking six months ahead, 39% of advisors expect stocks to decline, against 34% who expect gains and 26% who expect stability.
- The share of advisors with a negative near-term outlook for the stock market is now the highest it has been in five months.
- Several advisors said equities are overvalued or trading at historically high multiples and are vulnerable to disappointing economic news or earnings results.
- Advisors split evenly on the economy over the same six months, with 33% expecting improvement, 34% no change and 33% a decline.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- exposure At 15 points above neutral, the stock reading can absorb only one more slide the size of the one since May before advisors are neutral on equities.
- constraint The survey records views at three horizons, not portfolio changes, so it cannot show firms whether advisors are cutting clients' equity weights.
- contradiction Advisors' own explanations split between policy and valuations, so the survey cannot settle whether the stock caution is a call on multiples or on Washington.
Measured from the index's neutral line, September's drop is bigger than 12%. The WMIQ index scores a completely neutral view at 100 [2], so a reading of 115 [1] is 15 points of optimism. A reading 12% below the May record puts that record near 131 [16], about 31 points above neutral. Since May, advisors have given up roughly half of the stock-market optimism this index can register [17].
A month ago the economy gauge stood near 102 against roughly 118 for stocks [18]. September cut that 16-point gap to nine [19]. The forward questions show the change more clearly than the index levels do. Netting bulls against bears, the six-month outlook is minus five for stocks and zero for the economy [20]. Over 12 months, stocks net plus four, with 41% expecting gains and 37% expecting declines [5][21], while the economy nets plus seven, 43% against 36% [12][21].
Both forward questions now favor the economy. That means the stock index's remaining lead comes mostly from the current-conditions answers [23]. Advisors rate today's market well and are less sure where it goes from here [3][20]. Only 10% view the market's present performance negatively [3]. On the economy, 41% call conditions positive and 42% average [10], leaving about 17% in neither group [22].
Most advisors still call the market fundamentally healthy, citing strong data, corporate profits and continued price gains [7]. The several who flagged high multiples [8] were objecting to the price of owning those profits.
Policy uncertainty fits the same numbers, and the survey's wording gives it more weight. Its summary calls the comments tying the outlook to elections, congressional control, government spending and national debt "a substantial share" [13]. The valuation remarks came from "several" advisors [8]. Noise fits as well. May's reading was an all-time high [2], and monthly moves of three and four points [1][9] in a weighted index of retail-facing advisors [14][15] can reverse the following month.
I think valuation is the better explanation, or rather the slightly better one. Worries about elections and the deficit should drag on the economy reading too, yet that reading rose four points [9] in the same month the stock reading fell three [1]. The view is wrong if the economy gauge follows stocks down. In that case the caution is general, and high multiples are just how a minority of advisors explain it [8].
What to watch
- October's 12-month stock balance: a reading below zero would bring advisors' year-ahead view on equities into line with their six-month bearishness.
- A respondent count, or a tally of comments citing valuations against those citing policy, from Wealth Management and Informa Engage would show whether 'several' means a handful or a large group.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence50
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Advisor sentiment around the stock markets dropped three points in September to an index reading of 115, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index.
- [2]
In the ASI, 100 represents a completely neutral view; the September stock reading of 115 is 12% lower than the index's all-time high, reached in May.
- [3]
Only 10% of respondents currently have a negative view of the market's performance.
- [4]
On market prospects over the next six months, 34% of advisors expect an improvement, 26% expect stability and 39% expect a decline.
- [5]
Over the next 12 months, 41% of advisors expect market improvement and 37% expect a decline.
- [6]
The percentage of advisors with a negative outlook on the market's near-term future is at its highest point in five months.
- [7]
Most advisors view the stock market as fundamentally healthy, citing strong market data, corporate profitability and continued price gains.
- [8]
Several advisors said equities are overvalued or trading at historically high multiples, leaving the market particularly vulnerable to disappointing economic news or earnings results.
- [9]
Advisor sentiment on the economy ticked up 4 points in September to an index reading of 106.
- [10]
41% of respondents consider the current state of the economy positive; an additional 42% consider it average.
- [11]
On the economy over the next six months, 33% of advisors expect an improvement, 34% expect no change and 33% expect a decline.
- [12]
Looking 12 months ahead on the economy, 43% of advisors expect an improvement and 36% expect a decline.
- [13]
A substantial share of advisors' comments tie the economic and market outlook to elections, congressional control, federal policy, government spending and national debt.
- [14]
The survey is run by Wealth Management and Informa Engage, with data collected September 1-30, 2026; respondents give views on the economy and stock markets currently, in six months and in one year, and weighted responses form an index tied to a neutral value of 100.
- [15]
The ASI is intended to provide directional sentiment of retail-facing financial advisors.
- [16]
The May all-time high of the stock index was roughly 131.
- [17]
Stock-index optimism above the neutral 100 line fell from about 31 points in May to 15 in September, a loss of roughly half.
- [18]
In August the stock index stood at about 118 and the economy index at about 102.
- [19]
The gap between the stock and economy indexes narrowed from 16 points in August to 9 points in September.
- [20]
Six-month net balance (share expecting improvement minus share expecting decline): stocks minus 5 points, economy zero.
- [21]
12-month net balance: stocks plus 4 points, economy plus 7 points.
- [22]
About 17% of advisors rate the current economy neither positive nor average.
- [23]
Because both forward net balances favor the economy, the stock index's 9-point lead over the economy index comes mostly from the current-conditions answers.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- wealthmanagement.comAdvisor Sentiment Index: Market Optimism Slides Downward
1 article · October 9, 2026
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