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Aave V4's $310 million in active loans is about 2.5% of V3's book
Aave Labs says V4 passed $1 billion in deposits and $310 million in active loans in September, while V3's active loans reached $12.5 billion. For now V4 sits beside V3, and the token's monthly gain in market value is more than twice what V4 has lent.
The Investor · Invest desk
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What happened
- The stock tokens are collateral-only at launch, so nobody can borrow them, and they are offered only to eligible users outside the United States.
- AAVE traded near $182.51 on CoinGecko, up 22.1% in seven days, with about $391.9 million changing hands in 24 hours.
- An analyst cited by crypto.news set a $202.29 target, conditional on a daily close above $184, close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $183.86.
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Why it matters
- constraint With the stock tokens closed to US investors and barred from borrowing, the Base hub can grow only as fast as non-US holders of seven tech-stock tokens want USDC against them.
- exposure USDC suppliers in the Equities Hub are lending against tokenized shares of companies such as Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, so their repayment risk moves with those tokens' prices.
- contradiction crypto.news presents the V4 figures as a measurable backdrop for the rally. A loan book one-fortieth the size of V3's is too small for that job, so the $200 case rests on the $183.86 chart level.
V4's $310 million of active loans is about 2.5% of the $12.5 billion V3 had out in the same month [14]. Put the other way, the older system is roughly 40 times larger [15]. There are three ways this develops. One is migration, where lenders pull positions off V3 and the old book shrinks as the new one grows. Another is addition, where V4 writes business V3 never had and both books rise. The third is a stall, with V4 holding near its current size while the token trades on its chart.
The September figures lean toward addition. V3's active loans still reached $12.5 billion in the month V4 crossed $1 billion in deposits [3][1]. V4's first Base market is also a new product, an Equities Hub built for Coinbase stock tokens [5]. The update does not include V3's August figure, so a shrinking V3 can be neither confirmed nor ruled out from it. I think the evidence supports V4 as new business beside V3, and it does not yet show lenders leaving the old architecture for the new one. The counter-case is that part of the $1 billion is V3 money redeposited on Arc, the other network where V4 is live [4]. If Aave's next update shows V3's active loans below $12.5 billion while V4's keep climbing, lenders are moving and this view is wrong.
The deposit figure needs a second look. Loans of $310 million against more than $1 billion of deposits put at most 31% of V4's deposits on loan [16]. Stock tokens in the Equities Hub cannot be borrowed at launch [6]. To the extent they sit inside the $1 billion, the share of lendable USDC actually out on loan is above 31%, and it rises with the stock-token share of the total.
Assuming circulating supply held steady, AAVE's 35.4% gain over the month [8] added roughly $740 million to a market value now near $2.82 billion [9][17]. That is about 2.4 times V4's entire loan book [18], though one figure is a token valuation and the other a loan balance. Getting to $200 takes a further 9.6% [11]. The analyst's target depends on a daily close above a retracement level drawn across AAVE's fall from $386.25 to $58.76 [10].
What to watch
- Whether AAVE closes a day above $184, the condition attached to the $202.29 target, or falls back toward the $171.66 Supertrend support on the 4-hour chart.
- A split of V4's $1 billion between Arc and Base, and between stock-token collateral and USDC, which would show how much of the money is new to Aave.
- Whether Aave lets users borrow the equity tokens or adds borrowable assets beyond USDC in the Equities Hub.