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Bitcoin sat at $85,276 on Sunday, below the $86,000 area it hit before payrolls, even as Glassnode put October Fed hike odds at 22% from 66%. This week's fund-flow data will show whether ETF buyers are taking over from the short covering that lifted it.
Reality
Ether's order-book depth slid to 35-45% of bitcoin's in the third quarter, CoinGecko found, while its price rose 70%. The slide came mainly from bitcoin's book growing by about half while ether's stayed near $13 million to $14 million.
Reality
Bitcoin briefly crossed $87,000 on Oct. 2 after US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against about 90,000 expected. Traders added roughly $2.3 billion of futures positions during the climb, so more leverage now rides on the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
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Strategy spent $151.7 million buying back STRC preferred stock and $142.7 million on 1,665 Bitcoin in the week covered by its Sept. 28 filing. Its $18.84 billion of unsold common stock can fund more of both, though Michael Saylor's Oct. 4 post confirms no new purchase.
Reality
U.S. spot Ether ETFs lost a net $118 million in the week to Oct. 2, after taking in about $689.8 million the week before. The selling shrank as the week went on, and with ETH stuck under $2,800, Glamsterdam's Oct. 6 Sepolia activation is the dated event to watch.
Reality
Zcash's NU7 upgrade goes to testnet on Oct. 6, cutting target block time from 75 to 25 seconds with daily ZEC issuance held roughly flat. Nothing changes this month on the chain carrying real ZEC, so the token's October price trades on a test result and a scheduling call.
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Citigroup lifted its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 on a forecast of $5 billion in crypto inflows over the next year. A single month like June, when $4.51 billion left spot Bitcoin ETFs, would nearly cancel that forecast.
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AllUnity, co-founded by Deutsche Bank's DWS, launched USDAU, a MiCA-regulated US dollar stablecoin, on six blockchains. Dollar tokens already hold more than 99% of a $291 billion stablecoin market, the segment AllUnity enters from a base of small euro and Swiss franc coins.
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Bitcoin's CMBI benchmark closed near $83,113, just under the $84,000-$85,000 band where Glassnode counts more long-term holder coins than at any other price. With futures leverage at its lowest since March, spot buyers and sellers will decide whether the band holds.
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Bitget customers pulled about $463 million in the first 24 hours after withdrawals reopened, more than the $388 million hackers stole on September 24. The protection fund covers the theft with about $76 million to spare, so the withdrawals now test whether the $5.7 billion left in reserves matches what Bitget owes customers.
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US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $191 million on Thursday, 81% below Monday's $999 million record, as their inflow streak passed six days and $2.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT took about 85% of the day's money, so the other eleven funds slowed far more than the total shows.
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Alloc Init's Shielded Bitcoin paper claims Zcash-style private transfers on Bitcoin with no soft fork or consensus change. Moving coins into and out of the pool still depends on witness encryption the authors have not finished.
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The layer-1 will rewind both shards to an Aug. 11 checkpoint and ship a client that rejects the exploit's blocks. Finality on Harmony is now whatever the team decides to keep.
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Zano may roll back about 24 hours of transactions to contain a flaw in how assets, including its fUSD stablecoin, were issued on its chain. Honest payments from that day would be erased with the bad ones, leaving exchanges to recheck deposits they had counted as settled.
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Nine sessions of buying since August 17 pulled $1.42 billion into US spot Ethereum funds, and $1.02 billion of it landed in one BlackRock product, which makes this a distribution story before it is a conviction story.
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The same failure mode showed up twice in two days: Rain's Solana card contract, then Ajna's liquidation accounting. Avici's fix costs about $297 a user, and that number is now the floor its competitors get measured against.
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Arkham valued Hunter Biden's Base token at three million times the pool it traded in. The sell-side flows anyone can actually count come to about $3.2m, and that is the size of the real transfer.
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Geoff Kendrick's note puts ARB at $10 by 2030 from about $0.15, and the Expansion Program revenue behind that call splits 8% to the Arbitrum DAO treasury and 2% to a developer guild. A holder's claim on it runs through what the DAO spends.
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Manhattan prosecutors are examining whether Binance knowingly allowed trading that breached US sanctions on Iran, and the compliance numbers the exchange offers in response cover four named venues and about $4 million of flow.
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Cryptobriefing traces every dollar of crypto's $740 billion gain since late August to the Treasury's expanded bond buybacks. Cointelegraph, reporting the same prices on the same day, does not mention it. Perpetual futures leverage is near $160 billion in both accounts.
Reality
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