Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee canceled the state's remaining executions this year after Christa Pike survived both 50-milliliter syringes of pentobarbital. The outside review he ordered now has to account for the state's second failed execution of the year.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives45
- Confidence70
Supreme Court justices hear Boulder's suit against ExxonMobil and Suncor on Monday, a case that could settle dozens of similar local climate claims. At issue for producers is whether climate costs get fought jurisdiction by jurisdiction in state courts or left to federal regulators.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives62
- Confidence50
Supreme Court justices voted 6-3 to let the Trump administration keep making third-country deportations until a merits ruling expected in 2027. At the policy's first-year pace, each month of that wait covers about 2,000 more removals.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 71%
- Investor
- Investor 17%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
G20 trade ministers ended talks with no deal on excess capacity, as US trade chief Jamieson Greer said nearly all called current remedies inadequate. On the administration's record so far, the next step is more tariffs set in Washington alone.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Exxon Mobil and Suncor argue that the Constitution's structure bars Boulder's climate-cost suit from state court, in a case the Supreme Court hears October 5. Vox reports they cite no clause of the text, so the case tests the justices' textualism as much as Boulder's claim.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
President Trump is canceling nearly $1 billion Congress approved, including $28 million in HHS research grants, with five days left in the fiscal year. Congress's auditor calls the tactic illegal, and the Supreme Court's one ruling on it rested on foreign-affairs powers absent from domestic grants.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence62
The proposal landed the same day Apple asked a judge to order settlement talks Epic had already refused, and the same day the Supreme Court refused to pause the case. Any app with a web checkout now has a number.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 43%
- Operator
- Operator 23%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives75
- Confidence70
More than $100 billion in tariff money has gone back to importers, adding an estimated 0.2 point to third-quarter GDP. It does not repeat, and much of it is already promised to someone else.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Sports contracts run above 80% of a market that went from $2bn in August 2025 to $38.5bn. Whether the justices take New Jersey's petition this fall will decide which compliance bill the industry pays.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Supreme Court lets states screen voters against DHS's SAVE database, over three dissents and lower-court findings that its data is inaccurate. Each state decides whether to use it, so eligible voters' exposure depends on which states opt in before the midterms.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports that Ternus and Cue want more from a store he estimates at $30bn a year, at a moment when Appfigures has US commission revenue falling and the Supreme Court has yet to rule.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 41%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 31%
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The US Supreme Court's refusal to force Missouri's 2025 map into the midterms held only as long as it took a district judge in the same state to rule the other way, on identical legal arguments.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
The $5,000 check Trump promised at the Republican midterm convention would cost about $1.35 trillion by one Wharton estimate. It rests on tariff revenue the Supreme Court has already narrowed.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+70
- Incentives80
- Confidence66
Brookings' Elena Patel estimates the Postal Service's one-truck rural schedule could add 43,000 to 55,000 mail-ballot rejections in November. It builds on this year's primaries in three states and puts the heaviest risk on rural Western voters.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption55
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Apple's zero commission on external purchase links exists because a district court held the company in civil contempt, and the case that could remove that finding is now at the Supreme Court with the federal government on Apple's side.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
A 20 September meeting in New York was set to put potential AI safety rules on the same agenda as the trade truce expiring 10 November and Chinese rare-earth shipments that US officials call insufficient. Bessent said open-weight models are among the topics.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives72
- Confidence52
The package Gavin Newsom signed also extends mail-ballot drop-off hours and creates penalties for undisclosed paid political posts. The provision that reaches private parties in California is the disclosure one.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence50
Williams Sonoma is putting $10 million into employee 401(k) accounts and TJX accrued $112 million in bonuses. Together that is 0.12% of the $100 billion the Treasury has refunded to importers since May.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
The justices agreed to review the contempt finding that followed Apple's compliance plan, the plan that allowed outside payment links and charged up to 27% on purchases made through them.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives68
- Confidence72
A secondary market in refunded IEEPA duties is quoting the same asset at prices between 14.5 cents and 87 cents, and the consumer companies taking the cash are spending it on price cuts, vendor make-goods and 401(k) contributions.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
Earlier coverage
- Importers are selling tariff refund claims at 80 cents on the dollar
Invest · September 12, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Bankman-Fried's Supreme Court petition argues FTX customers were fully repaid, challenges $11 billion forfeiture as excessive
Invest · September 11, 2026 · 1 publisher
- A Wharton economist prices Trump's $5,000 dividend at $1.35 trillion of new borrowing
Invest · September 11, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Human editing carries the only registrable copyright in an AI-assisted asset
Build · September 8, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo ask courts to treat their tariff-era prices as final
Leadership · September 6, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Console makers tell US courts the buyer's claim ended at checkout
Product · September 6, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Three rectangular maps split the same 50 voters into three different seat counts
Science · September 5, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Sony keeps two PS5 price increases while banking a $514m tariff refund
Product · September 3, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Michigan more than quadruples the daily price of keeping Kalshi's sports contracts switched on
Invest · September 3, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Republicans ask the justices to extend the candidate ad discount to party committees
Leadership · September 3, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Former CMA official asks a London tribunal to price Apple's tracking prompt at £2bn
Product · September 3, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Bessent counts 19 G20 finance ministers against China's $1.2 trillion surplus
Invest · September 2, 2026 · 1 publisher
- A whistleblower dates the USPS ballot portal build to 58 court-permitted days
Invest · September 1, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Trump's Canada tariff hangs $10 billion a year on Section 338's first outing
Invest · August 29, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Repricing already inside the debt adds $160 billion to Washington's interest bill
Invest · August 28, 2026 · 1 publisher
- "An inadvertent error is not fraud": Cook turns removal attempt two into a test of "for cause"
Invest · August 26, 2026 · 1 publisher
- US-Canada talks collapse, and a 1930 tariff law that ignores USMCA is the real repricing
Invest · August 25, 2026 · 1 publisher
- The $40 trillion problem has a $32.8 trillion denominator
Invest · August 25, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Trump's 7.5% China tariff is priced to keep a summit, not to close a factory
Invest · August 24, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Supreme Court clears the citizenship-list pipeline on standing, and leaves states holding the file
Security · August 24, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Fifty percent on $20B of Canadian goods: 17 days to re-source lumber, steel and appliances
Invest · August 23, 2026 · 1 publisher
- USPS finalizes federal mail-ballot eligibility rules while two injunctions stand
Security · August 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Texas caps turn a $50M Sandy Hook verdict into $6M, while $1.25B in Connecticut sits untouched
Invest · August 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Logitech's $61M refund and the arithmetic that says giving it back still leaves buyers short
Build · August 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Washington's 50% Canada tariffs invoke a 1930 statute never used before, and Ottawa is matching
Invest · August 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Two-thirds want glyphosate banned, and almost nobody has been reading about it
Science · August 21, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Tariff refunds now outrun collections, and net customs revenue has gone negative
Invest · August 21, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Prediction markets are one circuit split away from a binary Supreme Court outcome
Invest · August 21, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Target's $994M Tariff Refund Turns a Court Ruling Into a Line Item
Invest · August 20, 2026 · 1 publisher
- After Cisco v. Doe I, Human Rights Diligence Loses Its Cheapest Justification
Leadership · August 20, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Logitech class action asks whether struck-down tariff refunds reach buyers or stop at the importer
Product · August 20, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Tariff refunds are landing, and where the cash stops tells you who has pricing power
Invest · August 19, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Home Depot's $730M tariff refund moved gross margin 25 basis points. That is the whole story.
Invest · August 19, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Trump's 'for cause' case against Lisa Cook will set the price of Fed independence
Invest · August 19, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Trump's ballroom case is a standing case, and permitting-exposed firms should read it that way
Leadership · August 18, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Your Landed Cost Is Being Litigated By Companies With $306,000 Problems
Invest · August 18, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Importers Get No Vote on a Midnight Tariff: $20bn of Canadian Goods, 50%, Decided Overnight
Invest · August 18, 2026 · 1 publisher
- De minimis is dead, not paused: the trade court closed the last exit
Invest · August 16, 2026 · 1 publisher
- The ballroom case is really about whether the executive can spend without Congress
Invest · August 15, 2026 · 1 publisher