Tariff refunds are landing, and where the cash stops tells you who has pricing power

The Trump administration says that as of July 31 it had certified $100 billion in tariff refunds, including interest, out of $166 billion collected, after the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorise the president to impose the tariffs ^[1][2]. That leaves roughly $66 billion collected but not yet certified, and it turns a legal question into an accounting one: whether the money lands in margin or goes back down the chain ^[3].

The disclosures so far draw a clean line, and it is not the line the marketing departments would choose. Amazon, No. 1 on the Fortune 500, said it received approximately $640 million of IEEPA refunds in the second quarter of 2026, described as the significant majority of what it expects, and has said it may offer refunds to only a limited number of affected customers ^[4][5]. Target reported $994 million in refunds in the second quarter, which added $752 million to net earnings, for total net earnings of $1.88 billion and $1.65 per share ^[6]. About 76 percent of Target's refund therefore showed up in earnings, and CFO Jim Lee confirmed there would be no consumer refunds, telling Modern Retail the money goes toward investing in price ^[7][8].

Nike expects to recover $986 million, had received $302 million as of May 31, and carried another $684 million as an outstanding receivable ^[9]. That is roughly 31 percent converted to cash, with the balance still a claim on the government ^[10]. Nike has not said whether consumers see any of it, while consumers are suing the company over unrefunded tariff costs ^[11].

FedEx is the counter-example. It disclosed roughly $800 million of IEEPA refunds inside its cash balance and said the money is being held for customer refunds, and both FedEx and UPS began returning cash to customers this month ^[12][13]. FedEx had sued the government for a full refund of tariffs it paid ^[14].

The useful distinction is not brand strength. It is whether the duty appeared on the customer's invoice as an identifiable charge. Carriers billed it as a line item and are handing it back; retailers embedded it in shelf prices and are keeping it, or converting it into future discounts that cannot be audited. Costco, hit with four class actions alleging it passed on tariff costs and raised prices, said it would issue refunds to consumers ^[15]. Litigation, not pricing power, is doing the work there.

The automakers sit in a third bucket: benefit recognised, cash unconfirmed. Ford recorded a $1.3 billion one-time tariff benefit covering duties paid between March 2025 and February 2026 while suing the administration over refunds, and GM recorded a $500 million favourable adjustment it believed refundable ^[16][17]. Neither confirmed the cash had arrived ^[18]. Stellantis received 400 million euros, about $467 million ^[19]. Apple said refunds added about two percentage points to fiscal third-quarter gross margin and 11 cents to diluted EPS, and will go into domestic manufacturing ^[20].

Watch the receivables, not the press releases. Kohl's paid about $190 million in tariffs, applied for roughly $140 million, and said in its latest quarterly filing it had received nothing ^[21]. Home Depot reported an immaterial amount after its May quarter and said its August 18 guidance includes refunds expected to partially offset unplanned costs ^[22]. Refund timing is now a working-capital variable and, for anyone who billed the duty separately, a liability.