Eastern Pacific hurricanes have outnumbered a typical full season by September as an El Niño that may prove the strongest on record builds. Past strong El Niño seasons show that where the storms track, more than how many form, decides the death toll on land.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence58
Brian McNoldy rebuilt a storm whose official record never held the parameters a wind field needs, producing quadrant-by-quadrant estimates every six hours for 11 days. He calls the result a best guess.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
In Stem Cell Reports, a team led by Benjamin Freedman reports that stem-cell-derived kidney organoids, which contain no immune cells and no blood vessels, shed podocytes in high-glucose media, and that blocking MIF or TNF-alpha protected them. The pattern resembles what patient biopsies show.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
Zoltan Toth's team skipped the usual analysis of tiny atmospheric errors and instead timed how long sunlight takes to replace all the energy in the atmosphere, arguing that interval is the same number as the outer limit of forecast skill.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence42
Counting monarchs at one Florida site has gone on for more than three decades. Even so, a count still cannot say where any single butterfly went. Solar radio tags light enough to fly on a monarch have now returned the first individual trajectories.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption27
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives71
- Confidence44
Researchers report in Cell Reports that leafminer damage recruits root bacteria, which make later cowpeas emit a wasp attractant. How long the soil holds it is unmeasured.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives33
- Confidence48
Forecasters see this El Nino peaking well above the 2015 event and pushing 2027 to roughly 1.76C above preindustrial. That is a decade of trend warming delivered in one year.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives28
- Confidence55