California's billionaire tax polls two points behind one of the measures that could void it

Two points separate Prop 42's 54% from Prop 40's 52%, and the Public Policy Institute of California put its margin of error at 3.8 percentage points, so the survey cannot say which of the two would collect more yes votes ^[18][3]. Prop 41, at 51%, sits a point under Prop 40, inside the same margin ^[19].

The ordering decides whether the tax exists. Prop 40 takes effect only if it surpasses the yes-vote totals of Props 41 and 42, should either of those pass ^[7]. A ballot marked yes on 40 and yes on 42 adds to both totals, and the larger total governs ^[22]. Props 41 and 42 are both backed by Building a Better California, a new group with major funding from Google co-founder Sergey Brin ^[8].

The Legislative Analyst's Office projects Prop 40 would raise tens of billions of dollars for healthcare and food assistance over the next several years ^[9]. At a one-time 5% rate, each $1bn of taxable base produces $50m ^[21]. The poll report describes the levy only as a one-time, 5% tax on the state's billionaires, proposed by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West to fill funding gaps triggered by President Donald Trump's cuts to Medicaid ^[1]. Gov. Gavin Newsom and both the Democratic and Republican candidates running to succeed him say it will drive wealthy taxpayers to other states and hurt California's economy ^[10].

How far one of these numbers can travel is visible elsewhere on the same ballot. PPIC had Prop 45, the overhaul of California's environmental review law, at 73% support in July and 49% in September, a fall of 24 points ^[13][14][20]. The September question was not the July question: it added the fiscal impacts, in the high tens of millions of dollars and potentially exceeding $100 million, and named the measure's supporters and opponents ^[15]. "I have to think that the placement on the ballot and the full description of the ballot label that provides supporters and opponents has really factored into the divided nature of support for Prop. 45 now," Mark Baldassare, PPIC's statewide survey director, said ^[16].

"The supporters of Prop. 40 have to think about and perhaps do something about the fact that so many people are supporting 41 and 42," Baldassare said in an interview ^[11]. "Therein lies the problem when you have measures and countermeasures on the ballot" ^[12]. Doing something about it costs money that SEIU United Healthcare Workers West would otherwise spend turning out yes votes for its own measure ^[1].

For anyone pricing exposure to a one-time 5% assessment, the 52% matters less than a difference between two yes totals that a 3.8-point poll cannot resolve ^[2][3][18]. The Prop 45 collapse followed a changed question, so it does not forecast Prop 40's September number, but it does show that voters given fiscal impacts and named backers answer differently ^[15][20]. Two other outcomes are live. Props 41 and 42 slip under 50% by election day and Prop 40 stands on its own majority; or all three pass, 42 lands above 40 on the count, and the tens of billions the Legislative Analyst's Office projected never arrive ^[7][9].