El Niño kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through September for the first time in reliable records by holding wind shear high over warm water. The mark could still fall if the National Hurricane Center upgrades Tropical Storm Fay in its post-season review.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
NASA counts 20 named storms and nine hurricanes in the northeastern and central Pacific by Sept. 28, against 1991-2020 averages of 13.5 and 7.4. Colorado State data put storm energy at more than double the norm, so the season is running stronger as well as busier.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Google DeepMind's WeatherNext Cyclones gives hurricane forecasters about an extra day of accuracy on average, according to a Nature study of past storms. So far it has one live season on record, and that season is what forecasters will lean on when the next storm strengthens fast.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
El Niño's wind shear has helped hold the 2026 Atlantic to seven named storms and no hurricanes while the eastern Pacific logged eight hurricanes. Both oceans draw on tropical waves born over Africa, and this year those waves fared very differently on either side of Central America.
Publishers:lufkindailynews.com
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence65
A Category 1 peak, 30 to 35 inches of projected rain, and warnings across all eight major Hawaiian islands. The wind rating described almost none of the actual exposure.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 22%
- Operator
- Operator 67%
- Investor
- Investor 11%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−30
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence65
The Met Office's Julian Heming credits this year's record El Nino for the ocean heat beneath the storm. Rapid intensification happens several times a year worldwide, and the two published accounts differ on Polo's peak winds.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 45%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 8%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence70
Brian McNoldy rebuilt a storm whose official record never held the parameters a wind field needs, producing quadrant-by-quadrant estimates every six hours for 11 days. He calls the result a best guess.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
NOAA raised its below-normal odds for the 2026 Atlantic season by 20 points in August. The figure describes an ocean basin, and it says nothing about where a storm makes landfall.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives32
- Confidence54
Lala may or may not clip a coastline, and the Big Island's own terrain could decide it. The rain forecast of 1 to 2 feet does not move either way.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives34
- Confidence52