Florida Museum researchers trace a century-old Tampa Bay pottery puzzle to migrant craftspeople from the Mississippian heartland. The finding puts resident Mississippian people in peninsular Florida, a region that maps of that culture have generally left out.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence40
Florida Museum researchers compared 58 plain and decorated sherds from Tampa Bay and report in American Antiquity that migrant artisans made the decorated vessels on the coast, one of three explanations archaeologists had weighed for a century.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
Joseph Pfaller noticed a crab drop off almost the first yellow-bellied sea snake he handled in 2012, and the larvae he collected then waited about a decade in a Florida museum for a crab specialist to ask what they were.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence60
Counting monarchs at one Florida site has gone on for more than three decades. Even so, a count still cannot say where any single butterfly went. Solar radio tags light enough to fly on a monarch have now returned the first individual trajectories.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption27
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives71
- Confidence44
Students at Mission San Francisco de Potano recovered an undecorated vessel unbroken after four centuries. The rarity is the deliberate placement, and the room around it is still unidentified.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives58
- Confidence52
A PNAS study built on twenty years of dating finds burial speed is the main control on how much time a single sediment layer mixes together. Neighbouring shells can be centuries apart.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives32
- Confidence52