Scotland secretary Douglas Alexander says closer EU trading ties would be a bigger prize for Britain than separate trade deals, the Guardian reported. He endorsed no route, and the dated item is next month's EU summit, where Burnham hopes to sign deals on emissions, electricity and farm products.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap
- Insufficient
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
President Lee told officials on Oct. 8 not to file a CPTPP application this year, 10 days after estimates showed a 6 trillion won annual manufacturing gain. The Korea Herald blames policy reversals for the stall; the farm-sector loss in the same estimates is 14% of that gain.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap
- Insufficient
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
President Lee Jae Myung shelved Korea's bid to join the 12-member CPTPP this year after farmers and fishers objected. Seoul set no new deadline, so exporters hoping for tariff cuts in Japan, Mexico and the rest of the bloc cannot count on an application before next year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Lee Jae-myung has paused South Korea's CPTPP bid until there are safeguards for an estimated 850 billion won a year in farm and fishery losses. His government projects manufacturing gains of up to 6.7 trillion won a year, and that payoff still needs every member's consent and a working group.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 51%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence66
Seoul estimates joining CPTPP would lift GDP 0.38 point after a decade while cutting farm, forestry and fisheries output 852.3 billion won a year. Manufacturers collect the gain and farmers carry 83% of the loss, on two figures measured in different ways.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Coupang and Hanwha have taken Fair Trade Commission investigations to court before any ruling, and courts have provisionally frozen an inspection decision and a document order. The FTC says it will prove the legality of its actions in the main proceedings.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Canada's export mix has moved ten points away from the United States in two years, but almost all of the measured movement is oil, gold and LNG, and the sectors that most need a second market are still only candidates.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence42
The government's second feasibility study lifts the projected annual farm loss 59 per cent above its 2022 number, which is the figure the farming sector will now negotiate against before any accession bid can open.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives74
- Confidence50