benchmark
Global oil price benchmark that averaged just over $100 per barrel during the closure, peaked at $126 in April and fell into the $80 range after the July re-closure.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Jet fuel averaged $149.29 a barrel in the window that set the September level, up 25.4%. Crude has since fallen, but Korean Air's long-haul surcharge still reaches 354,000 won a leg.
Reality
Trump wants Iran tariffs folded into a Russia sanctions bill that already cleared the Senate 86-12. With Hormuz contested, $80 oil is the calm case, not the base case.
Reality
The FT judged Beijing's energy strategy vindicated by the Iran conflict, per a secondary summary. The evidence on offer is one import number and a falling Brent price.
Reality
Long yields in the US, UK and euro area hit month highs in mid-August 2026 with policy rates unchanged. A duration hedge built around the Fed is pointed at the wrong variable.
Reality
Anti-ship missiles fired toward the Gulf of Oman sit a few minutes' flight from a two-mile-wide outbound lane carrying about 21 million barrels a day. The escalation cycle now has a firing record.
Reality
Drone strikes on two ADNOC tankers on August 14 nearly stopped traffic through the strait. A US sanctions package due the week of August 17 will not reopen it.
Reality
Oversupply, bypass pipelines and full storage absorbed what the IEA called the largest oil supply disruption on record. Those cushions are thinner now, and a second phase lands on a drawn-down system.
Reality