Topic
Removal of roughly 2 million bpd of Iranian exports and reported vessel incidents in the Strait of Hormuz as sources of price risk.
Traffic through the strait is down about 85% to fewer than 20 ships a day, and the American and Iranian accounts of what is moving differ by roughly 2.4 times, which leaves the war-risk premium as the only unedited price.
Reality
International oil prices have passed $100 while the US Navy narrows its Hormuz escort windows to two a day, and the overland pipeline that was the alternative to the strait is offline after a drone attack.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Jet fuel is 83% above its pre-war price and Avelo's chief executive says carriers will have to pass that on. A Q4 travel line sized on last autumn's $290 average domestic seat is now short by about a third.
Reality
The International Energy Agency expects a demand shock this year comparable to the pandemic's, and traders are pricing supply anyway, because the missing barrels show up in inventories while the missing demand shows up only in forecasts.
Reality
GasBuddy has California's diesel average at $7.91 a gallon and the national average past $6 for the first time. The extra $700m a day Americans are paying for fuel works out near $255bn over a year.
Reality
Iranian officials are now saying on the record that the economy cannot take another round. What that concession changes for energy and EM books is not what the headlines imply.
Reality