Topic
The expected trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inferred from fed funds futures pricing, economic data, and Fed officials' commentary.
Headline wholesale inflation accelerated to 5.4% over twelve months while the monthly core gain slowed to 0.2%. Traders go into Friday's CPI with a 64% chance of a September hike priced in.
Reality
One conditional line from Christopher Waller moved September hike odds from 63.2% to a coin flip. The squeeze that followed force-closed $415 million of shorts against $92 million of longs -- forced buying, not investor demand.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Fed funds futures went from 63% positioned for higher rates to roughly even in a single morning, and the number doing most of the work may be a Commerce Department measurement change worth 20 basis points.
Reality
July headline PCE at 3.7 per cent puts a September Fed hike near even money, and the load-bearing piece of the argument is a chart claim about how little sits above today's 2-year and 10-year yields.
Reality
Two more hikes get into the price on the strength of one speech, while the Bank of Japan looks at shrinking business investment, which leaves the widening policy gap resting on projections due the same month.
Reality
Dana Peterson expects no hike next month while markets price one, and her reasoning rests on a consumer decline now reaching independents and Republicans rather than on inflation reports that will not exist by the time the committee sits.
Reality
Nvidia, Salesforce and CrowdStrike all beat, and software repriced by a fifth in one session on the argument that AI capex is additive. Then Warsh moved the odds of a September hike to 55% and the tape barely blinked.
Reality
The 3.4% headline that drew three dissents for immediate hikes is carried by nine older months running near 4.4% annualized. Clearing those months out of the window takes nine more monthly prints.
Reality