Ottawa walks, Washington keeps the clock: $380B of trade now runs on annual review

A sixteen-year renewal covers the depreciation schedule of a stamping plant. A twelve-month review covers the next budget cycle. That is the substance of what changed when Washington declined the full-term renewal on July 1, 2026 ^[3] and switched to a mechanism that keeps the agreement alive to at least 2036 unless someone withdraws ^[4]. Count the cycles between those two dates and you get ten separate opportunities for either government to reopen terms ^[14].

The tariff number in the news is smaller than it sounds. The paused 50% duties cover roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods ^[6], which is about 5.3% of the more than $380 billion that crossed the border last year ^[12]. The item with the wider reach is the one Greer's side put at the top of its list: stricter rules of origin ^[7]. Regional content thresholds do not apply to a tariff schedule of selected goods; they apply to anything claiming preferential treatment, which is the reason a rules-of-origin ask is expensive even in a year when no tariff is ever collected.

The other American asks are the kind a signed document parks for years at a time. Dairy market access, agricultural and digital trade deficits, and Washington's concern that Canada functions as a route for Chinese investment into North America ^[7][8] were all on the table through the summer, while Greer and Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc worked on paperwork meant to clear the irritants ^[5]. Without that paperwork, each one stays live and gets re-litigated on the review calendar ^[11].

Worth noting what this account is. The characterisation that Canada declined to finish comes from Greer, as reported by cryptobriefing.com ^[1]. Canada's stated reason is not in that account, and LeBlanc's position at the point the talks stopped is not either ^[5]. What is documented on the Canadian side is a concession already made: the Digital Services Tax was rolled back, and by Greer's own telling it bought little at the table ^[9].

The structure now in place was built as a trilateral framework with a joint renewal decision at year six ^[10]. That decision was taken in one direction only, and the result behaves less like a treaty and more like an annual negotiation ^[11]. Preferential access is legally intact. The terms under it are contestable every twelve months for the next decade, and the pause holding back the 50% tariffs was never described as anything but temporary ^[15].