An uncovered iPhone Duo inner display costs half the phone's price to repair

Take a buyer who cracks the inner display in the first week. With AppleCare+ that repair costs $900 less than without it ^[17]. The uncovered fee is about half the phone's $1,999 starting price ^[19], and the uncovered fee for "other damage" is about three-quarters of it ^[20]. Covered, other accidental damage is $99 ^[4], a gap of $1,400 ^[18].

The feature Apple put forward is the replaceable cover layer. Kate Bergeron, Apple's vice president of hardware engineering, revealed that it can be removed and replaced, MacRumors reported ^[16]. Coverage saves a buyer only $30 on that repair ^[21], and $170 on back glass ^[22]. The plan's value sits in the inner display and "other damage" lines ^[17][18]. The sources do not define "other damage" or say how often inner displays fail.

The $399 upfront price ^[12] is the figure to test against those savings. One inner-display claim saves $900 ^[17], so the plan pays for itself on expected cost only if the odds of that claim are above 44% ^[23]. Against "other damage" the bar is 28.5% ^[24]. We think few buyers would put their odds that high.

The comparison is slightly unfair to the plan. MacRumors lists a $149 fee for theft or loss under AppleCare+ ^[11], and The Verge describes the $399 option as AppleCare Plus with Theft and Loss ^[14]. A buyer weighing damage alone sets the full price against part of what it covers.

We think the plan suits the buyer who could not pay $1,499 in one bad week without borrowing ^[1], and for that buyer the $399 is the price of removing the week. Anyone who could absorb the bill can skip the plan and set the $399 aside. The cost of that choice is a $999 bill if the inner display goes ^[2].

For a fleet the same test scales. One hundred plans cost $39,900 ^[25], and at $900 saved per inner-display repair they break even on expected cost at about 44 repairs ^[26].