UK energy suppliers press the government to act before a forecast 16% January bill rise

In cash, the January step Cornwall Insight forecasts is £276 a year, about 4.6 times October's £60 [d1, d3]. On a monthly direct debit that is roughly £23 more, against £5 in October [d4, c4]. The consultancy's figure and the 16% the BBC reported from forecasters for the 20 million capped households describe the same rise: £276 on £1,723 is 16.0% [c3, d2].

Energy UK's case is about timing. It says Thursday's rise in gas prices, together with the January forecasts, means that doing nothing now would make the crisis longer and more expensive ^[2]. The trade body compares this winter with 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove bills up ^[8]. "We cannot afford to wait for the same scale of crisis before acting again. We must heed the lessons from that time," said Dhara Vyas, its chief executive ^[9]. Her objection to waiting is as much about how the help is designed as about how big it is. "Last-minute emergency interventions run the risk of being badly targeted and costing us all more," she said ^[12].

Energy UK speaks for suppliers. Suppliers pay the wholesale prices it blames for cancelling out the VAT cut and earlier levy changes [c1, c6, c7]. A trade body asking for state money ahead of a price rise has a stake in the answer. Its reading of household debt has support outside the industry, though. Adam Scorer, chief executive of the fuel-poverty charity National Energy, told BBC Breakfast he agreed with Energy UK's analysis ^[14]. "[The increase in debt is] not more people getting into debt, that's more poor people getting into more serious levels of debt," he said ^[15].

The proposals work on two timescales. Extra targeted support and a debt relief scheme deal with this winter's bills ^[13]. The discounted social tariff and the levy changes, which Energy UK frames as part of a wider move to electrification, are longer projects ^[13]. Ministers can answer the January question without deciding on the longer projects. By Energy UK's own account, though, the targeted support is the first stage of a social tariff ^[13].

For operators, these are household numbers. They cover capped variable tariffs in England, Scotland and Wales ^[4]. The BBC report does not cover business energy contracts. A firm can take the cause Energy UK names into its own planning: wholesale prices pushed up partly by conflict in the Middle East and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ^[7]. In my view, any cost that tracks household budgets, such as hardship support for staff, should be planned on the January forecast. October's 4% is the minimum. The £1,999 figure is still one consultancy's forecast ^[5].

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has called the cost of home energy, petrol and diesel "very difficult indeed" ^[16]. "We're looking at any measure that can give people breathing space, that can take the pressure off," he said ^[17].