Tesla's 169 Cybercabs amount to a seventh of Waymo's Texas fleet after a month in Austin

Going from 45 authorized Cybercabs to 169 adds 124 cars in a month, a multiple of about 3.8, according to Texas Department of Motor Vehicles records cited by CNBC ^[1][17]. Extending that line gives three paths. At a steady 124 a month, Tesla would match Waymo's current Texas count of 1,154 in about eight months, and Waymo's US driverless fleet of more than 4,000 in about 31 ^{[10][11][18][19]}. If the 3.8 multiple held, Tesla would pass both within three months, though a multiple is easier to post from a base of 45 than from a base of 169 ^[20]. The third path is a pause while Tesla answers the audit query NHTSA opened after launch ^[13].

Investors pay for rides, and fleet size only stands in for them. Waymo's more than 500,000 paid rides a week, spread across more than 4,000 vehicles, comes to roughly 125 rides per car per week if you take both minimums at face value ^[11][21]. CNBC's report does not include a ride count or revenue for Tesla's service. Fleet counts are the only unit the two companies share. Count that way and Waymo's 359 new Ojai vehicles in Texas alone outnumber Cybercabs about two to one ^[10][24].

The complaints divide into two kinds. "There was so much demand that wait times were often like 45 minutes plus," said Ethan McKanna, a 20-year-old former Tesla intern who has taken about 30 Cybercab rides ^[15][14]. By his account the waits came from demand outrunning the cars, and adding cars shortens waits. A pickup in the wrong place or a trunk that will not close is a product fault, and adding cars repeats it ^[3]. McKanna found the ride "very smooth" and the butterfly doors "less convenient" than conventional or sliding ones ^[16].

The car business behind the stock is shrinking. CNBC reports consecutive annual revenue declines in Tesla's core automotive business, as BYD and Xiaomi sell cheaper models and push exports into Tesla's markets in Europe and Asia ^[7]. By CNBC's account, improving the driverless technology and growing Robotaxi quickly are key to Tesla's effort to reignite investor enthusiasm ^[8].

All of that growth is happening in one city. Every Cybercab in ride-hail service runs in Austin ^[12]. Add the 420 Model Ys and Tesla's Texas Robotaxi fleet comes to 589 vehicles, about half Waymo's count in the state, while the Cybercabs by themselves are about a seventh of it ^{[12][10][22][23]}. So Tesla is using its first month of additions to go deeper in Austin, while Waymo uses its growth to open new markets ^[9].

In my view the robotaxi is a long way from carrying the stock. Tesla has 169 cars in one city and has published no ride count, and its car revenue has fallen for consecutive years ^[1][7]. I am wrong if September's 3.8 multiple repeats for two more months. On that path Tesla's Cybercab count passes Waymo's current Texas fleet within two months, at roughly 2,400 cars ^[20].