Tesla's named Semi orders would fill about three weeks of its Nevada plant's target output

Fifty thousand trucks a year is about 960 a week ^[1]. This week brought two orders with counts attached: 2,500 trucks through the ZET SCALE coalition ^[5] and 500 from Einride ^[6]. Together they come to 3,000 ^[2]. At the plant's stated rate, 3,000 trucks is a little over three weeks of output ^[3], or 6% of one year ^[4].

Tesla's customer list is longer than its counted orders. Executives named PepsiCo, US Foods and DHL among the first buyers ^[2], and Musk said in a prerecorded video at the opening that the Semi already had a significant waiting list ^[7]. The 3,000 trucks are the part of that list with a public count. Production at Sparks began in late April ^[3], and Tesla's stated aim is high volume by next year ^[8].

The ZET SCALE order has the more interesting wording. The coalition said it "selected Tesla as its primary original equipment manufacturer" for an initial 2,500 trucks, and it aims to order more than 10,000 electric trucks from an array of providers ^[9]. Its members include Microsoft and PepsiCo, according to Proactive Investors, which cited data from the nonprofit Catalyst Mobility ^[5]. The word primary leaves 7,500 or more of the planned trucks open to other makers ^[6]. If Tesla won all 10,000, the coalition would still fill only a fifth of one year at Sparks ^[5].

The capacity figure can go more than one way. If orders compound, it will be on fuel prices and geography. CNBC points to soaring diesel costs as an opening for electric trucks ^[10], and Tesla plans to sell the Semi in Europe, where Volvo and Daimler Truck already offer battery models ^[11]. If orders do not compound, the line runs well short of its rate for years. The Semi's record points that way: unveiled in 2017, sold in very limited numbers from 2022 ^[12], and given its own plant nine years after the unveiling ^[7].

Autonomy is the third route. "There just aren't enough people around who want to drive trucks, which are crucial for transport throughout America," Musk said in July, according to CNBC ^[13]. He expects "to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi probably around the end of this year or early next year" ^[14]. CNBC notes that Musk has a long history of missing his deadlines for driverless vehicles ^[15]. Aurora Innovation and Kodiak are already running driverless tests and hauling cargo on US public roads ^[16].

A fleet signing today is buying on range and running cost. Tesla puts the long-range Semi at an estimated 500 miles on a charge and the standard version at 325 ^[17]. Musk said electricity would cost operators less per mile than diesel. Proactive Investors noted that the material did not include independent comparisons of operating costs ^[18].

I think the 50,000 figure is capacity Tesla has built ahead of its public order book, and a list of well-known customers does not change that yet. For Sparks to run at its nameplate, Tesla would have to deliver about 12,500 Semis a quarter ^[8]. The view is wrong if deliveries approach that rate during next year's ramp, or if Tesla discloses an order book of that size. Tesla shares were down about 2% on Friday morning ^[19].