Tesla opened its first dedicated Semi factory in Sparks, Nevada, built to make 50,000 trucks a year. It has set no date for reaching that rate, so fleets and investors are working from a capacity target until the trucks ship.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Aurora runs 20 driverless trucks today and wants 200 by December, but covering last year's $800 million loss with revenue alone would take closer to 2,000 of them at full utilisation.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives74
- Confidence56
Aurora and Kodiak can now test autonomous trucks in their home state, but the April 28 rule change behind the permits is being challenged by Teamsters California in Alameda Superior Court.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+4
- Incentives68
- Confidence52
Aurora and Kodiak can now run supervised autonomous trucks on California roads. Two consecutive 500,000-mile gates mean the safety operator stays in the cab for a long time.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption28
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
Mythos AI's towboat advisor and Aurora's driverless trucks are not rival technologies so much as rival evidentiary standards. Only one of them has a published number, and it is not a savings figure.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+11
- Incentives68
- Confidence52